CITIC Futures: Supply constraints still exist, tin prices fluctuate sideways

Tin ore supply remains tight. In Wa State, efforts are being made to restart high-grade tin mining operations in low-altitude areas, but the overall restart progress is still slow. For Indonesia, attention should be paid to the recovery of refined tin exports in May. According to my Steel Network, the spot tin transaction volume for May as of this week is 0 tons. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the situation remains severe, and supply risks remain high.

Looking ahead, issues on the tin supply side have eased compared with earlier, but supply in the main producing regions still remains vulnerable. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI continues to drive high growth in the semiconductor industry. However, this year’s global incremental photovoltaic installed capacity may see no growth, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may slow down. At the same time, other traditional segments such as tin-plated sheets and tin chemical products remain broadly stable. Considering the rebuilding of inventories across the industrial chain, tin ingot demand is expected to continue growing.

Overall, supply risks still exist. Coupled with the resilience of downstream demand, it is expected that tin prices will continue to have support at the bottom. (CITIC Futures)