Recently, I've seen people directly use ETF capital flows and the risk appetite of the US stock market to explain the rise and fall of cryptocurrencies and NFTs, as if they were as accurate as weather forecasts... Well, I don't really buy into such linear narratives.

On the NFT side, I'm more concerned about how liquidity is "missed": the floor price looks stable, but in reality, the order book is getting thinner and thinner, and when you actually want to sell, you find the depth is very weak. Royalties are also quite subtle; canceling transactions makes trading smoother, but the community's shared narrative loses a "we can still build together" crutch, and the hype relies more on stoking emotions. Now, many projects aren't low because the floor price is low, but because the story can't be told anymore, and funds choose to stay still and pretend to be dead. My approach remains the same: not chasing hot topics, but rather watching a few charts of on-chain transaction density, waiting for it to warm up again.