Have you noticed that Bitcoin has been declared dead 477 times, yet it’s still alive and doing just fine? It recently reached a new all-time high of $126,080, and the people undermining it range from Nobel Prize–winning economists to major bank CEOs. Behind this phenomenon, in fact, lies an increasingly intense debate in the market—does the traditional Bitcoin halving-cycle logic still hold?

Let’s talk about these “prophets” first. Peter Schiff may be the most persistent one—he has publicly claimed that Bitcoin has died 18 times, effectively making him the “king” of Bitcoin skeptics. But even with Nobel winners like Krugman and financial titans like JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon continually pouring cold water on it, Bitcoin still breaks expectations again and again. That’s what makes it so interesting in itself: are these top financial minds getting it wrong, or is there some logic behind Bitcoin that we haven’t fully understood yet?

Over the past decade, the answer seems to have centered on the concept of the halving cycle. Every four years, Bitcoin miners’ rewards are cut in half; supply shocks drive prices higher, and this pattern has almost become a scripture for believers. Glassnode’s recent report says that Bitcoin’s current performance “still reflects past patterns.” Following this logic, around October this year should be the peak of this bull cycle—about 550 days after the April 2024 halving. It sounds like logic at its best.

But here’s the problem. At the same time, Glassnode points out that long-term investors are realizing profits on a large scale, and that the inflow of market funds is starting to show “fatigue.” Spot Bitcoin ETFs have even recorded nearly $1 billion in net outflows in just a few trading sessions. That’s a bit odd—if the halving cycle is still that effective, why are these kinds of contradictory signals showing up?

This raises the biggest question facing the crypto community right now: Is this time truly different? Has the four-year halving cycle really become outdated?

There are more and more voices arguing that it is indeed different now. The major entry of traditional financial institutions—especially the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs—has changed the rules of the game. Pension funds and ordinary investors can now easily buy Bitcoin through brokerage accounts, and the massive amount of capital involved may directly overshadow the impact of halving events.

Even more interesting are the changes at the corporate level. Jason Williams points out that the global top 100 companies holding the most Bitcoin now hold nearly 1 million BTC, worth more than $112 billion. This is no longer a retail speculation game—it has become a strategic asset for many companies. This kind of steady long-term buying power has never appeared in any prior halving cycle.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s investment director, is even more blunt, saying, “Bitcoin’s cycle is dead.” He believes that as Bitcoin becomes more integrated into the global financial system, it will be influenced more by macro factors like the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rates, rather than relying solely on the halving mechanism. The effect of halving is gradually weakening, and the pulse of the world economy is the decisive factor.

So who should we believe? My view is that the four-year halving cycle may not have truly “died,” but it has definitely evolved. The core principles of supply and demand still hold, but they are no longer the only drivers. ETF and listed-company capital flows are like pouring water into a lake—water levels will rise, but the waves won’t be as suddenly intense as before.

For investors, this means the old rules may no longer apply. We can’t just count the days since the halving; we also need to watch ETF capital flows, the financial reports of companies holding Bitcoin, and—most importantly—central bank interest-rate decisions.

Bitcoin has survived 477 death prophecies, but the challenges it faces now are even greater—namely, maturity. In the financial world, maturity means giving up simple, brute-force rules and entering a complex and hard-to-predict game. If the Bitcoin halving cycle truly fades away, that isn’t the end—it’s the beginning of a new chapter in its history.