QCP: BTC breaking through $82k to $83k remains critical

QCP analysis states that Trump’s suspension of “Project Freedom” is interpreted by the market as a downgrade signal, driving oil prices down, stock markets up, and the dollar weakening. BTC, along with a rebound in risk appetite, has returned above $80k and continues to serve as a high-beta indicator of dollar weakness and improved liquidity. However, the options market has not yet confirmed a full breakout. BTC spot has risen back above $81k, with a weekly increase of over 6%, but the one-month at-the-money implied volatility remains around 41%. Last month’s volatility has softened, and the 30-day risk reversal still leans toward bearish options, at approximately -5.5 vol, indicating cautious optimism but not an euphoria state. QCP states that Japan is becoming a new macro pressure point, with a weak yen, rising risk of intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and increasing Japanese government bond yields, potentially marginally tightening global liquidity. Since open interest is concentrated between $80k and $85k, a clear breakthrough of BTC above $82k to $83k remains critical. Before that, if oil prices, USD/JPY, or global yields rise sharply, the rebound could still be sold off.