QCP Analysis: Market Reaction Caused by Trump's Suspension of the Project

Crypto World News reports that QCP analysis says the market has interpreted Trump’s suspension of “Project Freedom” as a downgrade signal, pushing oil prices lower, stock markets higher, and the U.S. dollar weaker. BTC has risen with the recovery in risk appetite, returning to above $80,000, and continues to reflect a high-beta expression of a weaker dollar and improving liquidity. The options market has not yet confirmed a full breakout; spot BTC has already risen to above $81,000, with a weekly gain of more than 6%. However, the one-month at-the-money implied volatility is still around 41%; the prior month’s volatility has softened. The 30-day risk reversal remains tilted toward put options at approximately -5.5 vol, showing cautious optimism in the market but not reaching euphoria.

QCP states that Japan is becoming a new macro pressure point, as risks of a weak yen, intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and rising Japanese government bond yields could lead to a marginal tightening of global liquidity. Since open interest is concentrated in the $80,000 to $85,000 range, a clear breakout of BTC above $82,000 to $83,000 remains the key. Before that, if oil prices, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, or global yields rise sharply, the rebound could still be sold off.