Recently, I see everyone linking ETF capital flows, stablecoin supply, US stock market risk appetite, and cryptocurrency price movements as if they follow physical laws. It makes me want to laugh and also feel a bit anxious. To put it simply, correlation can be very deceptive: an increase in stablecoins might mean people are about to buy, or it could just be repositioning, market making, or even someone preparing to run away and clean their on-chain assets first... Anyway, as someone who loves analyzing crash timelines, I've seen too many narratives of "capital is coming" eventually turn into "who took the last baton."