Evening Bitcoin Market Outlook

The current market is strongly pressured at the key resistance level of 82201. Once a volume-driven strong breakout and stabilization occur, the next target is directly towards the high of 83485; currently, going against the trend to blindly short is purely a contrarian move, with extremely high risk.
The holding logic is very clear: if you hold a short near 81000, when the market retraces to 80830 to stabilize and forms a morning star pattern, you should decisively cut losses and exit; there's no need to stubbornly hold. If there is truly a retracement demand, the first test of the 80830 support will directly break downward, not repeatedly confirm support and then rebound higher.
As long as the market does not effectively break below 80830, there is no opportunity for bears to enter, and contrarian shorting will only result in passive liquidation; once volume breaks below 80830, the hourly bullish trend is immediately broken, and a retracement will then begin, with the lower target at 79461.
Additionally, watch out for hidden hourly risks: prices continue to hit new highs, but the MACD indicator has not kept pace, showing slight bearish divergence. Although the divergence at the hourly level is weak, it is currently in a high zone; any slight disturbance could cause a 1%-2% fluctuation, which could lead to a significant decline, so be alert to the risk of high-level pullbacks.

Trading Suggestions:
A volume-driven breakdown below 80818, with a weak rebound unable to recover, suggests a right-side short position can be taken with a strict stop-loss.

On the hourly chart, volume stabilizes above 82192, and the next target range is 83437–84746;

If it fails to break through 82232 for a long time, the high-level market remains in a consolidation and pressure pattern.
$BTC