I noticed that Peter Brandt, one of the most experienced traders in the industry, has made an interesting prediction: Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2029. It’s a fascinating thesis that deserves attention because it doesn’t come from just anyone, but from someone who has thoroughly studied the historical market cycles.

According to his analysis, before reaching that target in 2029, the market will need to go through a prolonged consolidation phase. Brandt predicts that the bottom could materialize between September and October 2026. What strikes me is his methodology: he’s not pulling numbers out of thin air, but following the pattern of the four-year halving cycle that Bitcoin has historically repeated.

The reasoning is this: after each halving, bullish markets tend to reach their peak about 16-18 months after the event. Then comes the decline, and the new bullish cycle begins 12-18 months before the next halving. If this pattern continues, the peak of this cycle (started after the April 2024 halving) should form around October 2025, while the bottom of the current bearish phase could arrive in fall 2026.

What’s interesting: Brandt does not rule out that prices could drop significantly. He talks about a possible bottoming structure with major fluctuations, and in extreme scenarios, he doesn’t exclude retracements down to $50,000 or even $40,000. Currently, BTC is around $82K, so there’s still a wide margin for movement.

What I appreciate about his position is intellectual honesty: he clarified that his forecasts until 2029 are entirely based on the continuation of historical rhythms. If the price deviates from this cyclical pattern, he’s willing to revise the model. He’s not dogmatic, he’s pragmatic.

There is still division of opinion in the market. Some believe that the rebound since February is already marking the start of a new bullish cycle. The real question is: does the cyclical structure remain valid or are we entering a different regime? What happens in the coming months will be crucial to understand whether Brandt’s thesis of $250,000 by 2029 has a foundation or if the market is following a completely different logic.