I just came across an interesting rabbit hole about where Bitcoin could go in the next few decades, and honestly, the math behind this is quite solid.

It all started with a conversation between Mark Moss, who has built tech companies and now manages a Bitcoin fund, and Austin Arnold. What caught my attention was that they weren’t speculating randomly. They were using real data from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office on debt projections and money supply.

Here’s where it gets interesting: according to those numbers, the global pool of store-of-value assets (gold, stocks, bonds, real estate) could swell to 1.6 quadrillion by 2030. If Bitcoin simply captures 1.25% of that market, Moss calculates we could see Bitcoin at $1 million per coin. This isn’t hype; it’s pure math related to how much money governments will print.

Think of it this way: gold currently has a value of about $21 trillion. Bitcoin could potentially rival that in a decade if the projections hold true.

Moving to 2040, if the money supply continues expanding as projected, that basket of assets would reach $3.5 quadrillion. Using the same logic, Bitcoin could hit $14 million per coin. It sounds crazy until you realize how small Bitcoin still is compared to total global assets.

What really resonated with me was the point about risk. Moss bought Bitcoin around $300 in 2015, but back then, the risks were huge: would it be banned? Would it disappear? Now, many of those risks have dissipated. Governments are buying it, companies like MicroStrategy hold it in their treasuries, the U.S. president has exposure through commercial enterprises. So even though the price is higher today, the risk-adjusted Bitcoin price could be better.

What’s fascinating is seeing how over 170 public companies are adding BTC to their balance sheets. This isn’t reckless speculation; it’s the beginning of a completely new financial model where Bitcoin acts as digital gold backing credit products.

The logic is simple: when governments print more money, assets rise in price because more money chases them. It’s like diluting juice with water—the juice becomes weaker. The same happens with dollars. That’s why Bitcoin’s limited supply matters so much.

So, the numbers: $1 million in 2030, $14 million in 2040, and possibly much more in 2050. Sure, these are models, not guarantees. But they frame Bitcoin not as a risky gamble but as a response to a global financial system built on infinite debt.

The real question isn’t whether Bitcoin will go up. It’s whether people will understand why it’s going up. And if the future of money depends on scarcity, Bitcoin could be more important than most people think today.