Looking at the recent gold price trend, I’m pondering a question—will this major decline in gold become the sixth such drop in history?

Speaking of gold price fluctuations, they tend to follow quite a regular pattern. After reviewing historical data, the most memorable instance is in 1980, when in less than two years, the price dropped over 58%. At that time, the U.S. was aggressively cutting interest rates to combat inflation, and the oil crisis was easing, so the demand for safe-haven assets suddenly disappeared. Then, from 1983 to 1985, there was another 41% decline, as the global economy started to recover, developed countries were growing, and people were less eager to buy gold as insurance.

In recent years, there have been quite a few significant drops in gold prices. The 2008 crash is particularly memorable—double whammy from the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, with capital being pulled out, leading to nearly a 30% decline. Later, from 2012 to 2015, there was another 39% drop, during which the stock and real estate markets were especially hot, and no one cared much about gold. In mid-2016, expectations of U.S. and Canadian interest rate hikes caused another decline of over 16% within half a year.

Interestingly, behind every major gold decline, there’s a clear economic logic—either risk sentiment improves, interest rate environments change, or better investment opportunities emerge. Looking back now, these historical patterns still offer valuable insights for understanding the current market. The recent gold performance might prompt us to reconsider the role of safe-haven assets in an investment portfolio.