These past few days, I've been a bit annoyed by macro monitoring. As soon as expectations of interest rate cuts surface, the group chat starts using "risk appetite is back" as a universal explanation. But I see that on-chain reactions aren't that linear: funds will first leverage up, and whether spot prices keep up depends on absorption. To put it simply, positions heat up first, and sentiment catches up later.

There's also a strange phenomenon: discussions about the US dollar index rising and falling together with risk assets have resurfaced. I can't quite figure out if everyone is hedging the same way. Anyway, correlation is a fickle thing; it can change faster than candlestick patterns. My approach is a bit more straightforward: the more interest rate expectations fluctuate, the more I dare not go all-in. I treat my position like a valve—small profits and small losses are easy to explain.

I'm not regretful about the outcome, but I regret that every time macro narratives heat up, I get itchy to add more. Clearly, I should wait for certain indicators to confirm. For now, I'll keep being a slow-to-warm-up marker on the road.