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According to Odaily Seer monitoring, Polymarket has launched a new prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran can reach a permanent peace agreement before Trump's visit to China.
The current probability of reaching that agreement is 7%.
If both countries sign or formally confirm a qualifying peace agreement before Trump visits China, this market will settle as "yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "no".
If neither of these outcomes occurs by 11:59 PM on December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the market will also settle as "no".