This time, the sharp decline in crude oil prices is mainly because the market is preemptively betting on the slowdown of inflation. Oil prices dropped 4% intraday, directly slowing down inflationary pressures, and the market has consequently strengthened expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index weakened.

For Bitcoin, this is a solid macroeconomic positive: a weaker dollar and rising expectations for easing will reduce the opportunity cost of holding such highly elastic assets. Capital naturally flows out of safe-haven assets, adding extra emotional and financial support to the market.

But it’s important to be clear that this is not a direct cause-and-effect relationship; both are simply influenced by macro liquidity expectations. The core rhythm of Bitcoin still depends on its own capital absorption and trend. #BTC