Recently, I saw someone again pointing at large on-chain transfers and abnormal movements in exchange hot and cold wallets, shouting "Smart money is here / has run away." Honestly, I've seen too much of this and it's a bit exhausting... I no longer believe in the narrative that "you can tell the ending in advance just by looking at address movements."

Don't be scared by the terminology; the main point is really just one thing: whether the "on-chain results" you see are reliable and when they actually matter. Data availability means whether you can access the complete ledger details; ordering refers to how transactions are sequenced (sometimes it's not what you think—first come, first served); finality is whether the transaction will be rolled back or reorganized. Understanding these three things at least prevents you from having an emotional rollercoaster just because of a screenshot.

My current approach is pretty simple: first assume I might be wrong, keep my position small, and wait until it's "confirmed" before acting. Even during drawdowns, I make sure to have vitamin C—don't treat your mindset as leverage.