Affected by Middle Eastern conflicts, the German Chamber of Commerce lowers German companies' export forecasts

A survey released by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry on the 5th shows that, driven particularly by the Middle East situation, especially the war in Iran, German companies’ expectations for overseas operations have noticeably weakened. Export outlook expectations have shifted from slight growth previously to stagnation, while uncertainty in the external environment continues to rise.

The survey covers more than 4,500 companies. Nearly one-third of the surveyed companies believe that the conflict has exposed the fragility of global supply chains. These companies expect the broader market economic conditions to become even tighter.

In terms of outlook expectations, the survey shows that business confidence has clearly weakened. The proportion of companies expecting economic conditions to worsen rose from 24% before the Middle East conflict to 32%, indicating that companies’ concerns about the external environment have intensified. The German Chamber of Commerce and Industry expects that this year Germany’s exports may be difficult to achieve growth, whereas it had previously expected a 1% increase.

The survey also shows that rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions are the main risks facing companies at present. 46% of companies list high energy costs as a core operating risk, up significantly from last autumn; 44% are concerned about weakening demand; 40% are concerned about the risk of supply chain disruptions; and 37% are worried about rising raw material prices.

Volker Trier, chief analyst at the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said that the interwoven effects of energy price shocks, the fragility of the logistics system, and geopolitical uncertainty create compounded pressure on export-oriented companies and suppress their willingness to invest. (Xinhua News Agency)