Middle East Situation Brief | May 6

The fighting has lasted 66 days, and two official lines from both the US and Iran are being presented in parallel: a “state of war” and “the end of military operations.” Less than 48 hours after President Trump’s “Freedom Plan” was launched, it was urgently halted. Iran announced that it had begun a new mechanism to manage passage through the straits and warned that any ships deviating from designated routes would face a “decisive response.” On the same day, the UAE’s oil industrial zone was hit by Iranian drones and missiles. Since the ceasefire at the Lebanon-Israel border was reported to have taken effect, 2,696 people have died. Meanwhile, the IDF Chief of Staff claimed that, if necessary, it was ready to “deploy all air power eastward to deal with Iran.” The Middle East situation is now approaching a new crossroads.

I. US-Iran Confrontation: Positions are heading in opposite directions, with both military and economic levers at work

As of May 6, there is a fundamental divergence between the US and Iran on the official definitions of the current state of affairs.

On the US side, on May 5, Secretary of State Rubio officially announced at a press conference that the “Epic Fury” military operation launched against Iran at the end of February this year had already ended. “We have completed this phase,” he said, marking, from the official level, the end of this 66-day large-scale military campaign. On the same day, Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed that the ceasefire agreement, which began about a month earlier, is still in effect, but emphasized that Iran must “act with prudence and ensure events do not go out of bounds.” At the same time, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Kane clearly stated that the US military has always remained on high alert and, upon receiving an order, is “ready at any time to launch large-scale combat operations against Iran; restarting the threshold for military action against Iran is a political decision.”

Regarding the maritime situation, on May 5, the US Central Command confirmed that the “Bush” aircraft carrier is transiting the Arabian Sea, with more than 60 carrier-based aircraft onboard. This move was interpreted by outside observers as the US still maintaining strong deterrence and strike capability in the Middle East, despite the official claim that the “Epic Fury” operation has ended.

Iran, however, gave a completely different characterization. On the afternoon of May 5, Supreme Leader’s foreign affairs adviser Velayati said explicitly that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and that “unless the national will of the Islamic Republic of Iran decides otherwise, the strait will not reopen.” In his statement, he stressed that Iran and the United States are “still in a state of war” and that Iran will continue to carry out resistance actions.

II. The game over the Strait of Hormuz: The “Freedom Plan” is rapidly paused, and Iran launches a new management mechanism

After an intense close-quarters exchange, the contest over control of the Strait of Hormuz took a dramatic turn.

The US “Freedom Plan” was urgently called off. On the evening of May 5 (US Eastern Time), President Trump announced on social media that the large-scale “Diversion” plan, which had been launched for less than two days, would be paused in the short term. According to CCTV International news, based on Trump’s public statement on May 6, the suspension of the “Freedom Plan” was based on requests from Pakistan and other countries, military progress in operations against Iran, and major progress in the negotiations toward a comprehensive final agreement between the US and Iran. At the same time, Trump said that the US naval blockade of Iran would still be maintained.

When talking about possible Iranian violations of the ceasefire, Trump gave a deliberately ambiguous response: “You’ll know—because I’ll tell you… They (Iran) know what to do, and they know what not to do.” He also commented that Iran was “playing games, but they want to reach an agreement.”

A US warship broke into the strait and was driven away. On the 4th, the Iranian military issued a statement saying that on that day a US destroyer shut down its radar in the vicinity of the Gulf of Oman while attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz. After ignoring an initial warning, the Iranian navy conducted warning shots near enemy vessels, including the launch of cruise missiles, rocket missiles, and drones, successfully preventing the US warship from entering the strait. The US side insisted that no US Navy vessels were hit by missiles, and announced that two merchant ships flying the US flag had safely passed through the strait under US escort.

Meanwhile, the US Central Command said that the “Bush” aircraft carrier, carrying more than 60 aircraft, is transiting the Arabian Sea, while at the same time implementing a naval blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman.

Iran strengthens control through legislative and military measures. On May 5, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a harsh statement announcing that the only safe route through the Strait of Hormuz is the sea lanes Iran had previously announced to the outside world, and that any deviation would be met with a “decisive response.” On the same day, Iran announced that it had launched a new maritime passage management mechanism—meaning all ships must receive passage rules via official email and obtain permission in advance. Aziz, chair of the Iranian Parliament’s Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, said that any interference by the United States in the strait’s “new maritime management system” would be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

III. Attack in the UAE: Iran’s first direct strike, with the conflict spilling over significantly

The standoff between the US and Iran on the 5th for the first time directly involved a third country— the UAE, a long-standing US ally.

Based on information from multiple parties, the UAE Ministry of Defense confirmed that it was subjected to a coordinated attack from Iran consisting of 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones. This marked Iran’s first such attack on the UAE since the ceasefire was announced on April 8. An Iranian drone attack struck the Fujeirah East oil industrial zone in the UAE and sparked a fire, injuring 3 people of Indian nationality. In addition, missiles targeted an oil tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

At the same time, the UAE Ministry of Defense also announced that it successfully intercepted 3 missiles coming from Iran in the airspace over its territorial waters, and that another missile fell into the sea. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement strongly condemning the attack, calling it a “dangerous escalation” and an “unacceptable violation.” It said the attack directly threatens the UAE’s national security, stability, and territorial security, and violates international law and the UN Charter.

Notably, Iran did not deny these attacks. A senior Iranian military officer said through state television that Iran did not have a “pre-arranged plan” to attack these facilities, but at the same time accused US officials of “the ugly behavior of using force during diplomatic processes.” Baghaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, accused the UAE of “supporting and cooperating with the aggressor,” and said that all regional countries should “draw the necessary lessons” from these 50 days of events.

IV. Lebanon-Israel border: The ceasefire is nominal, not real, and casualties keep accumulating

Beyond the US-Iran confrontation, the frontline in southern Lebanon remains the main bleeding conflict zone. According to the latest figures released by Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health on May 4, since fighting in Lebanon was reignited on March 2, Israeli strikes against Lebanon have caused 2,696 deaths and 8,264 injuries.

Lebanese President: The time for leaders’ direct meetings is not yet ripe. On May 4, Lebanese President Aoun said clearly that the timing is not yet ripe for a direct meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. First, a security agreement should be reached, and Israeli attacks on Lebanon should be stopped. According to Lebanese media reports, the third ambassador-level talks between Lebanon and Israel will be held “within a few days” in Washington. The Lebanese side is prepared to accelerate the pace of negotiations because “there is no other choice besides negotiations.”

However, analysts point out that the ceasefire is, in practice, nominal. Negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel, which bypass Hezbollah, were strongly opposed by Hezbollah from the outset. Israel continues to launch attacks on the grounds that Hezbollah violated the ceasefire, and Israel has no real intention to reach a ceasefire until the threat posed by Hezbollah is completely eliminated.

V. Full-scale Israeli readiness: Threats, bans, and a civil crisis

Israeli military: Preparing a “strong response,” and extending the national state of emergency. At a handover ceremony on May 5, the IDF Chief of Staff Zammir made a hardline statement, saying that the IDF is closely monitoring developments in the Persian Gulf region. If Israel becomes a target of attack amid the ongoing escalation in that region, it is “prepared to deliver a strong response.” The newly appointed air force commander Tishler warned even more directly that if necessary, the IDF will deploy all air power eastward to deal with Iran. Separately, according to Israeli media reports, Israel has extended the national state of emergency, raised the alert level, and is preparing for the possibility of a ceasefire collapse and a renewed war with Iran.

A blockade has trapped about 22,000 crew members, worsening the civilian crisis. The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has inflicted substantial damage on global shipping and commerce. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Kane revealed that, at present, more than 1,550 merchant ships and about 22,000 crew members are trapped in the Persian Gulf.

The direction contradiction between Israelis and Palestinians has not stopped. On the same day, the Palestinian government issued a statement strongly condemning Israel’s approval of about US$300 million to build roads for settlements in the West Bank. It said this is a “flagrant violation” of international law.

VI. International community rushes to intervene: Diplomatic efforts advance on multiple tracks

Pakistan acts as intermediary: “I believe it will make major progress.” On the evening of May 5, Dar, the deputy prime minister and foreign minister of Pakistan, delivered remarks in Islamabad to the ambassadors and diplomatic missions of various countries. He said Pakistan is continuing to make efforts to mediate the end of the conflict between the US and Iran and believes it can achieve “major progress.” He hopes that consultations can resolve the conflict in a “win-win” way.

Russia joins Qatar in calling for restraint. On May 5, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Qatar Prime Minister Al Thani held a phone call. Both sides “expressed the necessity of giving up attempts to resolve the Hormuz Strait crisis through force,” and called on all relevant parties to work together to promote long-term stability through mediation.

China continues to step up diplomatic efforts. On May 5, Iran’s Foreign Minister Alaraqzi was invited to visit China. On May 6, Foreign Minister Wang Yi met and held talks with him in Beijing. This high-level visit was taking place at a sensitive time in the Middle East situation, and is considered a major move for China to continue playing a mediating role. Alaraqzi also emphasized on social media that the developments in the Strait of Hormuz show that “this political crisis has no military solution,” and said: “The Freedom Plan is the stalemate plan.”

Saudi Arabia issues calls for de-escalation. Saudi Arabia also joined the ranks calling for cooling down the situation. On the 5th, it urged all sides to reach an agreement through diplomatic means.

The EU weighs internally. German Chancellor Scholz urged Iran to return to the negotiating table and stop “weaponizing” the regional transportation of energy, echoing comments made earlier by French President Macron.

VII. Energy, finance, and commercial impacts: Oil prices give back, and markets remain turbulent

As the ceasefire situation remains in place and concerns about immediate supply disruption ease due to the pause in the “Freedom Plan,” international crude oil prices saw a significant pullback on May 5.

As of the close on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the light crude oil futures contract for June delivery was $102.27 per barrel, down 3.90%. The Brent crude oil futures contract for July delivery was $109.87 per barrel, down 3.99%. In the previous 10 days, WTI and Brent’s cumulative gains during the first three trading days of May had at one point nearly reached 8%.

However, whether it is WTI above $100 per barrel or Brent near $110 per barrel, this still indicates that the market’s fundamental concerns about global supply have not dissipated. The 1,550 trapped merchant ships, insurance refusals to cover risk, sharply rising supply-chain costs, and the fact that Gulf oil-producing countries such as Iraq have been forced to offer large discounts to find buyers have all provided strong support for oil prices to stay high. At the same time, the June WTI contract price also implies that since the conflict broke out in February, global benchmark oil prices have risen by about 50% in total.

This fragile balance is also reflected in financial markets. With reduced market worries about escalation of the Middle East conflict, the three major indices of the US stock market in New York opened higher on May 5. The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index both rose visibly at the close, reaching record highs.

Summary: On May 6, the Middle East situation was encompassed by a series of conflicting signals described as “relative calm” and “potential undercurrents.” The US announced the end of the conflict’s military phase, while Iran insisted that it is still in a state of war. Trump urgently suspended the “Freedom Plan,” while the Rouhani government remained firm and would not budge on the issue of opening the strait. The UAE suffered large-scale attacks by missiles and drones. The IDF Chief of Staff announced that air power would be comprehensively prepared for deployment eastward. Dense diplomatic consultations by the international community are racing against the clock, while the global economy is still running up huge bills for this long-running regional crisis. The real turning point remains far away.

This article is compiled based on public reports dated May 6, 2026.
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