Review of "The US Stock Version of the Son": A Complete Breakdown of Leopold Aschenbrenner's Positioning Logic

Editing & Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Host: Josh Kale; Ejaaz Ahamadeen

Podcast Source: Limitless Podcast

Original Title: Forget NVIDIA| This 24-Year-Old’s $4.5B Bet on AI’s Real Problem (Leopold Aschenbrenner)

Broadcast Date: March 4, 2026

Key Summary

Recently, everyone has been talking about Leopold Aschenbrenner—24 years old, $5.5 billion AI hedge fund, the American stock version of a prodigy. But most discussions stay at the level of “he’s amazing” and “he made a lot of money,” with few delving into his holding logic.

Two months ago, Limitless Podcast did an episode analyzing his 13F report item by item:

Why he sold out of NVIDIA, why he allocated 20% of his portfolio into a fuel cell company, why he bought a bunch of Bitcoin miners, why he shorted Infosys. At that time, the episode had almost no discussion. Looking back now, many of his judgments have been validated, making it worth revisiting.

Highlights of Key Insights

On Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Investment Performance

• “Last year, he managed $1 billion… today, just one year later, that $1 billion has grown to $5.5 billion.”
• “His fund was established at the end of 2024 with an initial size of $255 million. In just six months, his fund outperformed the S&P 500 by 8 times.”
• “He wrote a 165-page long article titled ‘Situational Awareness.’ In it, he basically predicts that we will reach Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2027.”

Shift in Investment Paradigm: From Chips to Infrastructure

• “He sold off NVIDIA, Broadcom, TSMC, Micron. These are all major AI infrastructure companies.”
• “By the end of 2025 or early 2026, he believes the market will have fully priced in the value of GPUs.”
• “He shifted focus to the main bottlenecks that investors have yet to fully address—energy and infrastructure.”
• “The existing power grid is designed for humans, not to meet the enormous AI demands we face today. That’s where his current investments are focused.”

Core Heavy Holdings: Bloom Energy

• “Bloom Energy is currently his largest investment, accounting for 20% of his entire portfolio… he has built a huge position in this company, amounting to $855 million.”
• “Bloom Energy develops devices called oxide fuel cells… capable of directly converting natural gas into electricity usable by data centers. It’s modular and can be deployed quickly.”
• “Their backlog orders total up to $20 billion. Revenue in 2025 grew by about 34%, and they expect a further 40% growth in 2026.”
• “If you use products like Bloom Energy’s natural gas turbines, you don’t need to rely on the power grid at all. Just install it next to your AI data center.”

Infrastructure and Bitcoin Mining ‘Shortcuts’

• “Leopold heavily invested in CoreWeave. He made the largest leveraged investment in core GPU infrastructure and energy supply.”
• “He invested in many Bitcoin mining companies… because these companies possess two key elements needed for building AI infrastructure: land and electricity.”
• “He acquired these companies to obtain their licenses and grid access. Usually, obtaining these licenses takes months or even years.”
• “It’s like taking over a bar that already has a liquor license, instead of applying for a new one and waiting years—this is a very clever ‘shortcut’.”

Short Selling Logic and the End of IT Outsourcing

• “He held a short position in a specific company, Infosys… their business model relies entirely on providing cheaper labor than Western countries.”
• “He realized these models are now powerful enough to automate simple tasks and handle some critical IT processes, so he shorted this company heavily.”

Investment Philosophy: Return to the Physical World

• “Companies relying solely on software will become very difficult in the future. His shift is not just about architecture but investing in the physical world, such as manufacturing, factories, energy, and infrastructure.”
• “These are fields that cannot be built by AI alone; they require manpower, licenses, and legislation—hard infrastructure and hardware.”
• “Energy is the only resource that everyone cannot supply enough of… all revolves around one core: powering the future.”

Young Investment Prodigy Leopold Aschenbrenner

Josh Kale:

There’s a guy named Leopold Aschenbrenner, he’s 24 this year. We covered him in a previous episode when he was just 23, managing $1 billion, focusing on emerging frontier AI concepts and technologies. But today, just a year later, that $1 billion has grown to $5.5 billion.

This young guy, much younger than us, has just delivered a groundbreaking performance, earning more in AI than any other fund in the world. More importantly, AI is the hottest market right now, which means fierce competition. So it’s clear that Leopold is doing something different.

Just last week, his new 13F report was released, giving us a glimpse into his recent trades. So next, we’ll analyze these documents carefully to see what he did to make his assets jump from $1 billion to $5.5 billion.

Insights from the 13F Report

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

He achieved all this within 12 months. His fund was established at the end of 2024 with an initial size of $255 million. In just six months, his fund outperformed the S&P 500 by 8 times, reaching $2 billion. Since we last discussed his Q3 fund report on the show, his fund has grown another $1.5 billion. So now, he’s in a period of explosive growth.

He’s very young, made a significant shift, but all aligns with his so-called “Bible”—a 165-page article titled “Situational Awareness.” In it, he basically predicts we will reach AGI by 2027. In this comprehensive piece, he details his view on how the AI revolution will unfold. His predictions are almost entirely correct; he foresaw the GPU infrastructure boom, and now he’s proposing a very important shift, which we will explore further.

From Chips to Infrastructure Shift

Josh Kale:

I believe the entire investment philosophy is shifting from chips to infrastructure. What we see on the screen now is very interesting. He created a document with Claude that will guide us through the changes from last year to this year. Perhaps we can start by discussing the assets he sold, as these positions are quite large, including NVIDIA, which he sold $300 million worth of put options on in a single quarter.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

You’ll notice many of the stocks he sold are very popular companies that many are investing in now. So the question is, why did he sell $1 billion worth of stocks in these companies? He sold NVIDIA, Broadcom, TSMC, Micron. These are all major AI infrastructure companies.

His sale of NVIDIA stock actually made him money; he held $300 million worth of put options, which means that due to NVIDIA’s stock price falling over the past few months, he likely profited from it. So why did he do this?

His 165-page paper mentions that by late 2025 or early 2026, he believes the market will have fully priced in the value of GPUs. These values mainly come from companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom, which manufacture these chips and stack them for AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic to train models.

Now, he’s shifting focus to the main bottlenecks that investors have yet to fully address—energy and infrastructure. Currently, many AI labs face a key problem: First, they have too many GPUs; second, the existing power grid is designed for humans, not to meet the enormous AI demands. That’s where his current investments are concentrated.

Selling NVIDIA Put Options

Josh Kale:

Seeing him sell NVIDIA puts and completely exit his NVIDIA position is very interesting. Because when I talk with friends or ordinary Wall Street folks, NVIDIA is the most discussed company and the biggest investment target. Seeing him turn away from NVIDIA again proves he’s always ahead, able to foresee future trends rather than sticking to past hot spots. In his view, the future focus is infrastructure, shifting from chips to information technology.

This might be an area to explore further—his new investments—because these are stocks you should pay attention to. These are his current holdings and what he believes will grow in the future. If his judgment is correct, we should see quite substantial returns. So, what new positions did he add this quarter?

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

Here’s a very neat investment portfolio chart categorizing Leopold Aschenbrenner’s investments by AI tech stack. We see investments divided into categories like power generation, real estate and facilities, computing and hosting, connectivity, storage and memory, chips and silicon.

Actually, I want to add something I just noticed: he made a very clever trade involving Intel. He sold his stock holdings but still maintained a large long position. This way, he freed liquidity and redirected funds into other companies. The main company he invested heavily in is in the power generation sector—called Bloom Energy. This company was almost unknown three months ago but specializes in making power turbines for AI data centers.

He built a huge position in this company, totaling up to $855 million. Although the report shows $876 million, the official figure is $855 million.

Bloom Energy: Power Innovator

Josh Kale:

Bloom Energy is his current largest investment, accounting for 20% of his portfolio. This is completely unrelated to chips; it’s a different direction. I looked into their business, and it’s quite interesting.

Bloom Energy develops devices called oxide fuel cells—advanced technology that generates power directly from natural gas on-site. Usually, natural gas is transported to data centers and then heated and cooled via turbines, which is a clunky energy process. Bloom Energy’s “fuel cell” can directly convert natural gas into electricity usable by data centers. It’s modular, deployable quickly, and apparently has no supply shortages. As far as I know, they plan to produce 2 gigawatts of power this year.

This is a very interesting energy play. I’ve been looking for an “NVIDIA of energy”—a chip manufacturer in the energy sector. I haven’t found a perfect match yet, but Bloom Energy might become such a company.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

I also checked their latest financial report since they are a listed company. Their backlog orders total $20 billion. Revenue in 2025 grew about 34%, and they expect revenue to grow another 40% in 2026. Clearly, their demand exceeds supply.

You mentioned oxide fuel cells. Their natural gas turbines are especially attractive because they don’t depend on the existing power grid. As I mentioned earlier, the current grid is under huge pressure because humans need energy, and AI data centers also need energy, driving up energy prices in those regions. If you use products like Bloom Energy’s natural gas turbines, you can completely bypass the grid. Just install it next to your AI data center, and you get efficient power for training or inference.

Companies like Broadcom and CoreWeave will need this kind of energy, especially large cloud providers and AI labs. It reminds me of the game Civilization—have you played it? It’s like moving infrastructure and energy production facilities to your own small settlement to boost development—the scenario is very similar.

Josh Kale:

It’s obvious that energy shortages are not the problem; the question is who can produce the most energy. They do have a huge backlog of orders, but the key question is whether they can produce enough to meet demand. Manufacturing capacity is critical here. Many such investments are entering a “atomic” world—where manufacturing truly becomes vital. I’d love to explore whether they have the capacity for large-scale production in the future. But for now, this is undoubtedly a very important investment area, accounting for 20% of his portfolio. So, what other notable positions are in his new portfolio?

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

He also increased his investment in CoreWeave by about $300 million. Imagine, as an AI lab, you need GPUs. But buying GPUs from NVIDIA is only part of the job. Deploying these GPUs into racks, providing power, engineering support, and maintaining cooling systems is a whole other matter. You can outsource these tasks to a “new cloud provider,” which is CoreWeave—they handle these operations.

Broadcom also offers similar services to some extent, but CoreWeave is a smaller company, initially focused on gaming GPUs, now transformed into an AI-focused company. Leopold has heavily invested in CoreWeave. In our previous discussion of Q3, he invested $500 million, and now he added another $300 million. His total investment in CoreWeave might now be around $800 million, but the story runs deeper. He also owns about 10% of Core Scientific, one of CoreWeave’s main suppliers, which provides energy grid services for them.

If you consider his investment strategy, Leopold is leveraging heavily in core GPU infrastructure (like CoreWeave’s new cloud services) and energy supply (like Bloom Energy)—these are his two main holdings.

Bitcoin Mining

Josh Kale:

I find it interesting that he has already accumulated enough shares in these companies to become an activist investor, capable of influencing their decisions. That’s very intriguing. When I studied his portfolio, besides energy production, I noticed he added the most positions related to real estate—about 10 positions connected to real estate, which ties into Bitcoin mining.

We see that he invested in many Bitcoin mining companies. It seems odd and somewhat illogical, given that the crypto market isn’t doing well, and Bitcoin’s performance has been poor. Why buy into these Bitcoin miners? The reason is, these companies possess two key elements needed for building AI infrastructure: land and electricity.

What does Bitcoin mining require? Massive energy and enough space for GPU racks. Although Bitcoin mining isn’t in full decline, these companies’ real estate and power resources could offer better risk-adjusted returns. It looks like he’s betting that these Bitcoin miners will either sell their land rights and licenses or transition directly into AI data centers.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

It’s important to clarify that his interest in these companies isn’t for mining itself; he’s acquiring them to obtain their licenses and grid access. Usually, obtaining these licenses takes months or years. That’s why we see companies like Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI announcing compute partnerships worth $1.4 trillion, but these collaborations haven’t fully translated into their models yet. This is also why GPU supply always lags behind the latest generation—they can’t get the licenses in time.

Leopold is acquiring small companies that already have licenses, bypassing the licensing process altogether. He’s divested from their crypto services and repurposed them for AI model training, becoming an infrastructure provider for AI labs. It’s like taking over a bar that already has a liquor license instead of applying for a new one and waiting years—a very clever “shortcut.”

AGI and Market Trends

Josh Kale:

One of the most admirable aspects of his investment philosophy, and how it’s been validated over the past year, is its simplicity and efficiency. For example, Bitcoin mining companies clearly hold licenses and energy resources, and every AI company needs these. So why isn’t everyone buying these companies? I think it’s because these ideas are too simple, and many are blocked from investing. But time and again, his simple ideas prove correct.

Will Leopold’s prediction of achieving AGI by 2027 also be correct? Will we really reach AGI in 2027?

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

To test this prediction, we opened a prediction market on Polymarket, asking whether OpenAI will announce AGI before 2027. Currently, it looks like many people didn’t believe Leopold’s prediction when he proposed this fund, but now the market’s probability is only 13%. So, it seems a bit distant. His investment thesis might be correct, but the timeline could be slightly off.

That probability is quite low. But I must say, he was initially criticized for that paper, with many thinking his views were too far-fetched and unrealistic. About 50% believe AGI will be achieved within the next few months, while others think it will be around 2030. Leopold is the only one who predicted 2027 and is currently closest to that estimate.

He predicted the importance of GPUs before the GPU boom exploded. Now, he’s making a prediction before the energy infrastructure boom arrives. So I think he remains ahead in this regard.

However, his portfolio isn’t just long positions; he also holds a short position in a specific company, Infosys, an Indian IT outsourcing firm. Their business model relies entirely on providing cheaper labor than Western countries. Simply put, “outsourcing all your administrative IT work to us, and we’ll handle it.”

I believe his bet here is based on observing trends. He sees the rise of products like Claude Code and GPT Codex 5.3, and realizes these models are now powerful enough to automate simple tasks and handle some critical IT processes. So he’s heavily shorted this company.

I think this is one of his deeper investments, very aligned with current trends, showing he dares to put real money behind his views.

Bull and Bear Markets

Josh Kale:

Let’s discuss the reasons for bull and bear markets. When you enter such an investment portfolio, what are the criticisms or cautions? First, this investor is only 24; I’m not sure if he has the experience many other investors do. To some extent, this might be an advantage, but at some point, could this advantage collapse?

Another concern is that this fund’s investment thesis resembles a single-theme bet. If the growth of AI infrastructure and related spending slows down, or macroeconomic conditions change, each position in this portfolio could face downside risks. There’s hardly any hedging. So, this strategy does have potential vulnerabilities, but from current signals, the fund’s performance seems poised to continue rising.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

If you look at some of the most famous investors today, their success isn’t just about making money in a year or a quarter, but about whether they can achieve stable returns year after year, decade after decade, and generate compound growth. Leopold’s start has been very impressive; his performance far exceeds the average of hedge funds in any industry, not just AI. But he still needs to prove himself over a longer time horizon—time will tell.

I just want to say, this guy who was once fired by OpenAI, has deep insights into AI’s future, and has made the boldest predictions—he’s the only one whose predictions have been almost entirely accurate so far. He poured a lot of effort into that 165-page paper, full of confidence in his views, and it’s currently paying off.

Will things change in the future? Possibly. But you can see these reports and investments as real-time tracking tools for his view on bottlenecks in the AI race. I want to emphasize this. His initial fund investment thesis focused on GPUs, believing they would be in high demand and undervalued. Now, he believes that the next bottleneck is energy infrastructure.

Look at Elon Musk, launching data centers into space. Why? Because the sun provides more energy. Companies like Google, Meta, Broadcom, and NVIDIA are all investing in data centers or infrastructure to access the power grid. He’s just putting money into these demand areas, which I think is a smart move.

Josh Kale:

I recently read a great article by Naval, which emphasizes that companies relying solely on software will become very difficult in the future because developing and generating custom software is now very easy. I think his shift isn’t just about architecture but about investing in the physical world, like manufacturing, factories, energy, and infrastructure. These are fields that AI cannot build; they require manpower, licenses, and legislation—hard infrastructure and hardware. I believe this is the future direction.

Energy is the only resource that everyone cannot supply enough of. Whether in power generation or real estate investment, everything revolves around one core: powering the future. In the last earnings season, just Google, Amazon, and NVIDIA committed over $650 billion in capital expenditure, showing huge funds are flowing into solving this problem. His portfolio is clearly positioned to capture these upside opportunities.

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

Yes, he’s made some high-risk investments you might think are risky. For example, unless you know the energy infrastructure sector well, many might not have heard of Bloom Energy. But this company can be considered a top-tier energy firm, especially in portable energy. He connected these clues and concluded that the grid can’t support current demand, so he decided to invest heavily. He put nearly one-fifth of his entire portfolio into this single asset.

This is a highly concentrated, high-risk, high-conviction approach. But if successful, it explains how his portfolio could return 4.5 to 5 times in a year and a half. We must respect his achievement—turning $1 billion into $5.5 billion in a year is incredible.

Leopold’s Investment Outlook

Josh Kale:

Overall, his achievements are astonishing, and his latest shift from hardware to infrastructure and energy looks very promising. The outlook is very optimistic. If you agree with his portfolio, it might be a worthwhile opportunity. Of course, this isn’t investment advice—just an overview of his holdings. But it looks very promising and could perform extremely well this year.

Josh Kale:

I’m also curious about what our listeners think. Do you believe our analysis is professional-grade, on par with Leopold’s level, or do you think we’re completely wrong and missing obvious stories?

Ejaaz Ahamadeen:

You know what I want? I want to know what your top stock is this year.

Josh Kale:

Yes, Leopold bet on Bloom Energy. I want to know—what’s your Bloom Energy? Did we miss something important that could again lead to a 5x increase this year?