Financial Forward-Thinking: Analyzing the "Reservoir Logic" of the US Dollar, Gold, BTC, and Oil from the Middle East Situation

Recent Middle East events have triggered a chain reaction in the financial markets. We can interpret the performance and underlying logic of assets like the US dollar, gold, BTC, and oil through the "reservoir flow logic."

Since the Middle East incident on February 28, the US dollar index has risen by only 1%, gold has fallen by 11%, and BTC has increased by 16%. The trends of these three align with the "reservoir flow logic." Meanwhile, oil prices have risen by 47%, and the Nasdaq has increased by 8%.

Asset Performance and Logical Analysis

• Gold: As a traditional safe-haven asset, it has not played its safe-haven role this time; instead, it has been suppressed by the dollar, to some extent becoming a "risk asset."

• BTC: As an important "regulator" within the "reservoir logic," it is gradually recovering.

• Oil: Its futures market is basically under control, with price fluctuations often driven by various information, even deliberately released false news to push prices.

US Operators' Goals

US financial operators represented by Bessent aim to achieve the following by adjusting key indicators:

1. Dominance of the US dollar: First establish the dollar's strength in value and dominance, paving the way for a gradual devaluation and liquidity release ("weak dollar but strong dollar").

2. Reshape safe-haven perception: Make the market believe that "gold can rise long-term but is difficult for short-term speculation to beat the manipulators," so that when real risks emerge, the dollar will once again become the core safe-haven asset, encouraging continued reserves and holdings of USD.

3. Support BTC: As the US midterm elections approach, traces of support from Wosh, Bessent, and others for BTC will become increasingly evident.

4. Control oil prices: Keep oil prices within the "comfortable range" of $80–$90 per barrel, while further consolidating influence in the energy sector through events like the UAE withdrawing from OPEC.

Larger Strategy: Building a "Global Central Bank"

Bessent and Wosh join forces to integrate the functions of the Federal Reserve and parts of the Treasury, aiming to create a "global central bank." This layout makes "currency swaps" strategically significant for the US. By combining the dollar with global oil discourse rights, it further consolidates its financial hegemony.
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