#Gate广场五月交易分享

‍#Polymarket每日热点

What will the WTI crude oil price be in May 2026? My bet is A $80. The reasoning is as follows:

1. Geopolitical risks driven by the US-Iran conflict are rapidly diminishing

This is the most direct factor suppressing oil prices in the short term. As is well known, the primary reason for the recent oil price increase has been the US-Iran conflict. Currently, the conflict has quickly moved from a stalemate to a "possibly ending" stage. Just today, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken stated at a press conference that the "epic fury" military operation launched by the U.S. against Iran in late February has concluded, "we have completed this phase of the mission." President Trump also announced a pause on the "Freedom Plan" (the operation where U.S. military assists ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz) and said that the U.S. has made significant progress toward a comprehensive and final agreement with Iran. The probability of a phased agreement being reached in May is very high. The core support for the current high oil prices has loosened, opening space for prices to fall.

2. Clear expectations of increased supply will reverse the supply-demand pattern

Signals of increased production from oil-producing countries have been released. Eight major OPEC+ countries have decided to increase their daily output by 206k barrels starting in May, with further production increases planned for June. Market expectations are shifting from "tight supply" to "balanced supply and demand or slight oversupply." This change in expectations will directly cool the market's bullish sentiment.

3. Demand faces pressure and cannot support excessively high oil prices

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its April report that high oil prices themselves are suppressing demand. When Brent crude hovers around $100 per barrel, combined with high refining margins at that time, the high prices of refined products significantly erode demand, especially in price-sensitive sectors like aviation fuel and petrochemical raw materials. Additionally, the rise of new energy sources such as lithium batteries and natural gas is weakening the position of traditional oil resources. The demand for oil and its derivatives is decreasing year by year, which is the fundamental reason for the long-term decline in oil prices.

My betting strategy is

When the US-Iran conflict becomes tense again and oil prices rise, bet that oil prices will fall to $80, thereby increasing the "bottom-fishing probability" to expand my gains.