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These days, I've been looking at address profiling again, all that "smart money" and "whale clustering" stuff. Watching too much of it really can go to your head... Honestly, labels are just stories; they can help you narrow down the scope, but trusting them 100% is just fooling yourself. Especially when the same fund flow, after a few jumps, crossing chains via bridges, and then entering CEXs, the "net inflow/net outflow" you see might have already changed hands.
Now I deliberately ask myself during reviews: Is this wave driven by emotions chasing labels, or is there real continuity on the chain? Recently, some regions have been tightening or loosening taxes and compliance, causing deposit and withdrawal expectations to shift, and many address behaviors have also changed shape. Yesterday, it looked like "long-term," but today it seems like "fleeing."
Anyway, I now prefer to be a bit slower, spend less on Gas, and not be led by a chart to chase waterfalls, only to end up writing a review.