Bitcoin returns to 80k; can ETF inflows help push it to the next level?

Article: Blockchain Knights

After Bitcoin rebounded to the critical level of $80k, early holders showed signs of profit-taking, while institutional funds continuously absorbed market selling pressure through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Once Bitcoin stabilized above $80k, a clear wave of profit realization swept through the market.

On-chain data shows that long-term holders with 2 to 3 years of holdings are accelerating their sell-off pace, with profit-taking volumes reaching $209 million per hour. These investors generally have realized gains ranging from 60% to 100%.

The total net profit and loss across the entire network has risen to $1.12 billion, reaching the highest profit level since December last year.

Unlike traditional stock sell-offs that often trigger panic, the crypto market views large-scale profit-taking during an uptrend as a sign of healthy fundamentals.

Despite hundreds of millions of dollars in selling pressure, Bitcoin remains above $80k, confirming strong genuine buying demand in the market.

Meanwhile, the market has seen a turnover of holdings, with profit-taking at high levels exiting the market, and new entrants stepping in around $80k, reshaping the overall cost basis and solidifying bottom support. Short-term selling sentiment has become more stable.

Spot ETFs are the core pillar stabilizing the market. In the first two trading days of May, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded $1.1 billion, with over $600 million absorbed by products under BlackRock alone.

Currently, ETF capital shows an extended inflow cycle and weakened outflows, indicating sustained institutional long-term allocation demand.

Industry analysts note that current institutional buying volume far exceeds five times the daily new supply of Bitcoin from miners. Based on historical trends, the average gains over the next month could be significant.

The derivatives market continues to squeeze out short positions. Since early February, the liquidation of short positions has reached $7.88 billion.

Even as shorts continue to add positions at the $80k resistance level, they are repeatedly forced to close positions, further pushing prices higher.

Market forecasts indicate a 62% probability that Bitcoin will break through $85k by the end of the month, with a 25% chance of reaching $90k.

On the macro level, Bitcoin has withstood external negative factors such as Federal Reserve policies and oil price fluctuations, demonstrating strong resilience. However, technical resistance remains at the $82k to $83k range and the 200-day moving average.

Easing geopolitical tensions have reduced market volatility. The US crypto industry regulation bill has entered the review stage, and regulatory certainty expectations have boosted institutional confidence. The industry generally believes that the crypto market has entered a warming cycle.

Therefore, the battle around the $80k mark appears more like a transition of Bitcoin from a speculative retail asset to an institutional allocation asset.

As long as ETF institutional buying continues to absorb profit-taking pressure, Bitcoin has a solid fundamental support to challenge the next key resistance level.