The essence of the "Freedom Plan" is a political tool; the duration of the pause depends on oil prices and election prospects. Currently, Brent crude at $114 has threatened U.S. inflation, prompting the White House to be motivated to restart intervention. But if the Fouchier attack does not trigger a chain reaction (such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz), the pause may last 4-6 weeks; once new attacks occur or Iran-backed proxies escalate, the plan will be indefinitely shelved, shifting to military deterrence.

Before the Oman talks, Iran is likely to maintain a tough stance—high oil prices ease its fiscal pressure, and concessions are needed to achieve substantive sanctions relief. Iran is expected to cooperate only slightly on transparency of nuclear inspections; core enrichment levels and stockpiles will not loosen. Therefore, the chances of a breakthrough in talks are low, and geopolitical tensions will persist.

· Crude oil: In the short term, maintain high volatility around $110-120. If there are no new supply disruptions, Brent may fall back to around $105; but if conflict erupts between Israel and Iran-backed proxies, oil prices could surge past $130.
· Risk assets (BTC, etc.): Bitcoin’s rise above 80K depends on a brief risk appetite rebound. If high oil prices persist, stagflation fears will suppress liquidity expectations, making risk assets prone to decline. BTC is expected to fluctuate between 78K-82K; if oil breaks above $120, it could sharply drop below 75K.

The market is entering a "geopolitical risk pricing" mode, focusing on the Oman talks statement and the Fouchier port recovery. Strategically, it is recommended to reduce risk exposure and wait for signs of oil price stabilization. #比特币站稳8万关口