#比特币站稳8万关口

The "Freedom Plan" is essentially a short-term intervention tool used by the Trump administration to curb oil prices through strategic reserve releases or diplomatic pressure. Based on historical experience (such as the joint reserve release in 2021), such plans typically suppress oil prices for several weeks. However, this time, due to the attack on the Fouchair oil tank causing Brent to surge to $114, geopolitical risks have overshadowed policy interventions. If the attack is confirmed to be linked to Iranian proxy forces and negotiations in Oman fail to make progress, this plan could be suspended for at least 1-2 months—until the market confirms that supply will not be further disrupted. In the short term, the White House is more likely to prioritize diplomatic cooling over restarting price controls.

As the Oman talks approach, Iran usually adopts a "marginal policy": showing toughness before negotiations (such as accelerating enrichment progress) to gain leverage. The current high oil prices benefit Iran (increased export revenue), but also raise domestic inflation pressures. Iran is unlikely to soften on core uranium enrichment issues but is willing to discuss secondary topics like transparency in inspections. Genuine concessions will only occur after the US lifts some sanctions. Therefore, the probability of a substantive breakthrough at this week's Oman talks is low, and the market will continue to price in a "deadlock + potential conflict."

· Crude Oil: Brent at $114 has already factored in short-term risk premiums. Without new attacks or Strait of Hormuz blockades, oil prices could retreat to the $105-110 range; but an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or US military intervention could instantly push prices above $130.
· Risk assets (BTC, etc.): Bitcoin just broke above 80K, relying on improved risk sentiment. If high oil prices persist, it will intensify stagflation concerns (interest rates difficult to lower, liquidity tightening), putting risk assets under downward pressure. In the short term, BTC may fluctuate between 78K-82K, awaiting clarity on geopolitical developments. Once oil prices break above $120, the market may "sell everything for cash," and Bitcoin could retreat below 75K.

The market is in a fragile balance between "geopolitics vs. policy regulation." The duration of the "Freedom Plan" suspension depends on whether the next attack occurs; Iran will not easily soften its uranium enrichment stance; oil remains volatile at high levels, and risk assets should beware of a second bottom. Investors should pay attention to statements from the Oman talks and the recovery of the Fouchair port.