5.6 Gold In-Depth Analysis

- On Wednesday, international spot gold continued to rebound, currently at 4645 USD, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%.
- Over the past 24 hours, gold has significantly rebounded from above 4500 USD, with the market logic shifting from "rising oil prices driving inflation and suppressing gold prices" to temporarily "oil prices falling, the dollar weakening, and gold recovering from lows." Progress has been reported in US-Iran negotiations, the US has paused actions related to the Strait of Hormuz, and energy inflation and high interest rate pressures are easing temporarily, giving gold room to rebound.
- According to COMEX gold futures data disclosed by the Associated Press, on May 5th, estimated trading volume was 98,406 contracts, with open interest at 367,899 contracts, an increase of 814 contracts for the day. Price rises, declining trading volume, and increasing open interest indicate that this rebound has not seen significant volume-driven chasing, but rather cautious accumulation. Funds are neither withdrawing from gold nor rapidly expanding trading scale, but are re-testing balance within the 4500 to 4650 USD range.
- The current rebound of gold is mainly based on three points: the fall of the dollar reducing non-dollar buyers' cost of purchasing gold, falling oil prices weakening inflationary pressure, and improved peace prospects easing concerns about "prolonged high interest rates." However, the rebound remains fragile; the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully settled, and US employment data is still ahead. If oil prices or the dollar rebound again, gold may continue to fluctuate in a low range.