My current conclusion is quite simple: during hot rotation, don't rush to "participate" first. Instead, treat yourself as an observer of the traffic pool; you can avoid many losses. To put it plainly, attention is like chips, and chasing after it usually means you’ll end up taking the last baton.

I usually ask myself two things first: Is this narrative driven only by emotions (like spam in groups, KOLs passing the baton), or is there real ongoing activity on the chain (new addresses, retention, genuine use cases) supporting it? Second, do I have a clear exit condition? Otherwise, once the hype fades, my mind starts looking for reasons to tough it out. After backtesting, I know that the most expensive thing isn't the fee, but the moment of "I don't want to miss out."

Recently, the debate over privacy coins/mixing coins and their compliance boundaries has been quite intense. I’ve become more cautious: the greater the controversy, the easier it is to be used as a traffic engine, with stories spun around both rises and falls. Anyway, I’d rather miss out than prove my "team is right" at the height of emotion… That’s all for now, I’m going to pet some cats.