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Deeply integrated public chain on Telegram—Analysis of the Top Gainers: TON

To talk about the most popular public chain project recently, I believe it’s none other than Ton. Today’s DOGS is the project on its chain. The uniqueness of TON lies in that it is not only a blockchain but also an ecosystem deeply linked with the world's largest communication platform, Telegram. Let’s take a look at it today.

1. Basic Fundamentals

TON (The Open Network) is a next-generation blockchain platform focusing on speed, security, and scalability. Its core design philosophy is to handle millions of transactions per second when necessary, while remaining user- and service-friendly.

The history of TON dates back to 2018, when Telegram founder Pavel Durov launched the TON project and raised $1.7 billion, but it was forced to halt due to a legal lawsuit from the U.S. SEC. In 2020, community developers took over the project and continued to push forward, transforming TON from "Telegram’s blockchain" to "Telegram ecosystem’s blockchain." In May 2026, a fundamental change occurred—Durov officially announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main driving force and largest validator of TON, marking step 2 of the MTONGA roadmap.

TON’s technical architecture adopts an "infinite sharding" design, achieving horizontal scalability through dynamic sharding mechanisms, theoretically allowing unlimited throughput growth as needed.

The core application scenarios of the TON ecosystem include: Mini App ecosystem within Telegram, TON Space wallet, on-chain payments (USDT issuance on TON has exceeded 1 billion), DeFi protocols (staking, lending, DEX), and recently launched AI agent functions (TON Tech released on April 28th, capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi operations, and staking via AI agents).

2. Current Market Overview

TON’s current price is $1.8151 USDT, with a 24-hour surge of 30.36%, and intraday fluctuation range of $1.3635 — $1.8742. 7-day increase of 37.35%, 30-day increase of 46.85%, 90-day increase of 44.06%, showing extremely strong short-term momentum. Market cap is about $4.85B, ranked 27th, classified as a mid-cap token.

24-hour trading volume is approximately 15.6 million USDT, with a trading volume of 9.03M TON tokens. Contract holdings increased by 22.36% in 24 hours (from 189.5 million to 231.9 million tokens), indicating highly intense leverage trading. Fear and Greed Index has risen to 50, with market sentiment shifting from fear to neutral leaning towards greed.

Social sentiment is extremely optimistic: positive sentiment accounts for 85%, negative 15%, with an emotion gap of 70%, and bullish sentiment overwhelmingly dominant. Discussion activity has surged—posts in the last 3 days increased by 75% compared to the previous 4–6 days (89 vs. 51).

3. Recent Major Events and Catalysts

Event 1: Telegram officially takes over TON (most core catalyst)

On May 4–5, Durov announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main driver and largest validator of TON. This means TON is shifting from a "community-driven blockchain" back to an "officially supported Telegram blockchain," backed by the world's largest communication platform with 900 million monthly active users. Related technical upgrades will be launched within 2–3 weeks. This is the most direct catalyst for the recent surge—Telegram’s official endorsement provides unprecedented credibility and user reach for TON.

Event 2: Transaction fees reduced by 6 times to near zero

After validator voting, the transaction fees on the TON network have been reduced by about 6 times. Sending TON now costs approximately $0.00052, and USDT transfer costs about $0.00142. Near-zero fees significantly lower user entry barriers, laying the infrastructure foundation for explosive growth in micro-payments, on-chain DeFi, and Mini App ecosystems.

Event 3: TON Tech launches AI agents

On April 28, TON Tech launched AI agents capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi operations, and staking without user private key interaction. The AI + blockchain narrative is one of the hottest tracks in 2026, and TON’s deployment in this area adds extra narrative premium.

Event 4: Mainnet validator rules update

On May 2, TON officially released an update to mainnet validator rules, proposing to raise the minimum staking threshold from 824k tokens to 1 million, and the maximum to 3 million. Increasing the staking threshold means validators need to hold more TON to participate in network maintenance, which will boost staking demand and reduce circulating supply, providing structural support for the token price.

4. Technical Analysis

Trend Signals

The trend is extremely strong. 4-hour ADX=49.73 (PDI=53.53 far exceeds MDI=1.68), and the daily ADX is similarly very high, ranking among the top in trend strength among analyzed tokens. From 15-minute to daily charts, all moving averages are in bullish alignment—MA7 > MA30 > MA120 across all timeframes, indicating a consistent upward trend.

The 4-hour PDI (53.53) vs. MDI (1.68) shows a huge gap (~32 times), meaning upward momentum overwhelmingly dominates downward momentum, with bulls in full control. Such an extreme PDI/MDI ratio rarely appears in normal markets and often signals a major bullish breakout after positive catalysts.

Bollinger Bands opening upward with price far above the upper band—current price at 1.7928 is about 10.5% above the upper Bollinger band at 1.6220, with a bandwidth of 0.4883 far exceeding the 20-day average bandwidth of 0.2828. Price breaking above the upper band and continuing upward indicates strong momentum.

24-hour volume surge—trading volume is about 37 times the 7-day average (824k vs. 41,500 USDT), showing significantly increased capital participation. Unlike DOGS, where price rise was accompanied by shrinking volume, TON’s surge is supported by ample funds, making the rally more credible.

Comparison with DOGS overbought condition

Both TON and DOGS are in extreme overbought states, but their overbought natures differ:

TON has volume support—trading volume is 37 times the 7-day average, driven by real funds; DOGS’s price increase is accompanied by minimal volume, only 1/650 of the 7-day average, lacking fund support.

TON has fundamental catalysts—Telegram takeover + fee reduction + AI agents + staking threshold increase, multiple substantial positive factors stacking; DOGS’s catalysts mainly come from Revolut listing and ecosystem spillover effects.

TON’s market cap is larger—$15.42M (rank 27) vs. DOGS’s $415k (rank 576), with higher liquidity and relatively controlled volatility.

This means that although TON is severely overbought, the "quality" of the overbought is higher—supported by funds and fundamentals, so the correction might be milder; whereas the overbought driven by hype without support could see sharper declines.

5. Trading Strategy Recommendations

Short-term (1–3 days)

TON is in a state of "extremely strong trend + severe overbought + volume surge + major catalysts." Unlike DOGS’s hype-driven overbought, TON’s rally is backed by real funds and fundamentals, making its overbought condition more meaningful.

However, extreme overbought almost always signals a technical correction. Currently, it’s not suitable to chase the high. If you already hold TON, consider partial profit-taking—given the 4-hour RSI=91, a correction could happen at any time. Protect realized gains rather than chasing unrealized profits.

If you want to buy in, wait for a pullback to the 4-hour moving average support zone before entering. The 4-hour MA7 is about 1.61, MA30 about 1.40—these are potential support levels during correction. At that time, overbought indicators will likely have been digested, offering a better risk-reward entry.

Negative funding rate (-0.000076) favors long positions—holding positions can earn funding fees, adding an extra advantage for long traders.

Mid-to-long-term (1–3 months)

The medium to long-term outlook for TON has improved significantly with Telegram’s takeover catalyst. Reaching 900 million users + near-zero fees + staking threshold increase + AI narrative forms a strong bullish case. The subsequent steps in the MTONGA roadmap will be key variables for the medium-long-term trend.

But the current surge is mainly driven by news catalysts rather than actual ecosystem usage growth. Moving from catalyst to real adoption takes time, and there may be expectation gaps and corrections in between. Investors optimistic about TON in the medium-long term should focus on actual ecosystem data rather than just narratives.