#Gate广场五月交易分享 The fundamentals saw a sudden change in the Middle East situation yesterday. The previously bullish scenario became tense again. The U.S. claimed to have launched actions to divert the Strait of Hormuz, sinking an Iranian interference ship; Iran responded by firing warning shots and damaging U.S. operations in the strait. The oil-producing country UAE was attacked for the first time since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The Middle East tension has returned, with crude oil surging sharply, U.S. stocks fluctuating, and gold dropping again, narrowly holding above $4,500 per ounce. Specifically, the UAE Ministry of Defense reported monitoring four cruise missiles coming from Iran, three of which were successfully intercepted over territorial waters, and one fell into the sea; UAE confirmed a fire at the Fujeirah oil industrial zone caused by a drone attack from Iran. Keep a close watch on the escalation of conflict; if it continues to intensify, gold prices may fall below $4,500.

Since Powell took office, whether he remains at the Federal Reserve has attracted market attention. Former New York Fed President Dudley said Powell’s decision to continue serving as a Fed governor after stepping down as Chair would help reassure Wall Street and the public amid pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates. “The Fed has been under relentless attack from the president, and its independence has been questioned,” Dudley said. “Powell believes that staying on the Fed would actually strengthen external perceptions of the Fed’s independence. I think, if he’s willing, continuing is a wise choice.” Powell’s term as a Fed governor ends in 2028, and he chose to stay on the board after resigning as Chair on May 15. Meanwhile, the new Fed Chair Powell is about to take office, and market reactions post-inauguration are closely watched.

The world’s largest gold ETF holdings stand at 1,035.768 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; meanwhile, the world’s largest silver ETF holdings are 15,035.63 tons, a reduction of 6.45 tons from the previous day. Gold holdings remain unchanged, while silver has decreased, indicating a higher probability of bearish pressure.

From a technical perspective, on the 1-hour gold chart, gold again experienced a sharp decline yesterday, breaking through key support levels at 4560 and 4510 from a high of 4630 dollars, with the lowest touching around 4501. The MACD indicator shows an accelerated death cross, and the green bars continue to expand, significantly strengthening the bearish momentum. Moving averages show that gold has already broken below the three most critical moving averages in the chart, including the Vegas channel and MA60, indicating a bearish trend with a high likelihood of further decline. From a pattern perspective, breaking below the lower support of the rising flag pattern suggests a shift to bearish; if the 4500 level is lost again, further downside space may open. The MA21 and MA60 moving averages have shifted from flat to a downward trend rapidly, combined with MACD momentum divergence signals, indicating expectations of new lows.

Summary: Today’s strategy is to continue watching for rebounds to short, expecting the trend to extend downward. The primary focus today is on the 45-55 range, where we already have a position. If there’s a rebound, focus still on 45-55; if it breaks upward, then watch the 80-4600 range. If it surpasses 4610 today, the bearish view is invalid, and the target could shift toward 4700 or 4750. Support levels are at 4470 and 4420; going lower than that would be too deep, around 4350-4330. The current plan is to short on rebounds, and if the downward move continues, consider whether to go long based on volume and divergence signals. Once momentum exhausts, consider covering at 4420-4400.

This is the general idea; support and resistance levels are for reference. The goal this week is to help everyone profit! If you have questions, contact us. Wishing everyone smooth sailing!