#Gate广场五月交易分享 #油价突破110美元 The Strait of Hormuz reignites with smoke and fire! Oil prices surge by 6% in a single day—Is the fourth oil crisis really coming?

On May 5, 2026, the international crude oil market was rocked again by a thunderclap of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. Just yesterday, the UAE oil industrial zone was suddenly attacked by Iranian missiles, with flames soaring into the sky; Iran further claimed to have "repelled" U.S. warships attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil temporarily broke through $115 per barrel during trading, rising over 6%, while WTI crude stabilized above $106. When Trump threatened to "erase" Iran from the face of the Earth, global energy markets' nerves were stretched to the limit. Today’s oil market—are these short-term pulses, or the beginning of a new super cycle?
Middle Eastern Powder Keg: The "Life and Death Line" of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil transportation route, carries about one-third of global seaborne crude oil trade. However, since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, this "maritime lifeline" has effectively been under blockade. Iran released a new map of the strait's control, warning it will intercept all "illegal ships," and plans to legislate to strengthen military control over the strait. The Trump administration has launched the so-called "Freedom Plan," attempting to coordinate relevant countries, insurance companies, and shipping organizations through "non-military guided actions" to open the route, but in the absence of allied support and a clear ceasefire guarantee, whether this mechanism can break the deadlock remains a huge question mark.
More concerning is that the UAE Ministry of Defense confirmed intercepting 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones on May 4, with three people injured. This is the first attack on the UAE since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, marking an escalation from bilateral confrontation to regional crisis.
The UK Prime Minister urgently called for Iran to "meaningfully participate in negotiations," but Tehran's stance remains firm, and the timetable for negotiations is still uncertain.
Supply and Demand Imbalance: OPEC’s Continuous Production Increases Fail to Fill the Gap
As geopolitical tensions intensify, OPEC issued a statement on May 3, announcing that seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries will increase crude oil production by 188k barrels per day in June. This is the first decision since the UAE's formal withdrawal from OPEC+ and marks the third consecutive month of announced production increases. However, this increase sharply contrasts with the soaring oil prices—markets clearly believe that an additional 188k barrels per day cannot compensate for the supply gap caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Data does not lie. Over the past nine weeks, the U.S. has exported more than 250 million barrels of crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest exporter. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and other Asian countries are turning to the U.S. to fill Middle Eastern supply gaps. However, this surge in exports is rapidly depleting U.S. domestic inventories, which have fallen by 52 million barrels over four weeks. Due to infrastructure and shipping bottlenecks, U.S. export capacity is nearing its limit. This means that even if the U.S. ramps up production fully, it will be difficult to fully replace Middle Eastern supplies in the short term.
Saudi Arabia recently announced a significant increase in the official selling price (OSP) for Arab light crude for May 2026: a premium of +$19.50 per barrel to Asia, up $17 from the previous month; +$27.85 per barrel to Europe, up $25; and +$14.60 per barrel to the U.S., up $10. The sharp increase in Saudi OSP directly reflects their assessment of tight supply and provides a solid bottom support for global oil prices.
Inventory at a Critical Level: Global Crude Oil Stocks Drop to Dangerous Levels
As of April 10, 2026, U.S. total crude oil inventories stood at 188k barrels, an increase of 188k barrels in nearly a month. While seemingly ample, the structure is extremely unbalanced: strategic reserves are at 872.99M barrels, down 8.28M barrels in a month; commercial inventories are at 409.18M barrels, up 6.26M barrels. More dangerously, Cushing inventories are only 29.76 million barrels, up 2.238 million barrels in a month, but still at historically low levels. If the blockade of Hormuz continues, Cushing inventories will rapidly deplete, triggering a short squeeze in WTI prices.
In Europe, as of January 2026, commercial crude oil inventories were 42.52 million barrels, down 6.5 million barrels from the previous month, a -1.51% change. OECD commercial inventories stood at 2.24M barrels, only 2 million more than last month—a negligible increase. The three major agencies (IEA, EIA, OPEC) have significantly downgraded their 2026 inventory forecasts, indicating the global oil market is shifting rapidly from "ample" to "tight" or even "shortage."
Financial Linkage: How Soaring Oil Prices Are Ripping Through Global Markets
Oil price surges are never isolated events. On May 4, U.S. Treasury yields followed crude oil higher, hitting a one-month high; the dollar index rose, emerging from two weeks of lows; offshore RMB surged over 100 points intraday before turning lower, falling below 6.83. U.S. stock markets collectively declined, with the Dow dropping over 1%, marking the largest one-month decline; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell, retreating from record highs. The logistics sector led the decline, with FedEx and United Parcel Service dropping 10.47% and 9.12%, respectively. This "stocks, bonds, forex, commodities" four-way sell-off exemplifies the classic impact of high oil prices on the global economy.
When energy costs account for over 30% of corporate operating expenses, inflation expectations will rapidly heat up, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates and suppress economic growth. Federal Reserve President Williams recently forecast that U.S. inflation will reach 3% in 2026 and only return to the 2% target in 2027—meaning high oil prices will continue to erode corporate profits and consumer purchasing power.
Is $120 per barrel oil just a matter of time?
Considering the current situation, breaking $120 per barrel for Brent crude is only a matter of time. The core logic includes three points:
First, if the Hormuz blockade persists for more than a month, the world will lose about 18 million barrels per day of seaborne crude oil, roughly 20% of global production, which no increase can fully compensate for;
Second, U.S. inventory depletion is exceeding expectations, and the risk of a Cushing short squeeze is mounting;
Third, the summer driving season is approaching, and demand in the Northern Hemisphere will reach its peak for the year, further widening the supply-demand gap.
However, risks should not be ignored. Trump’s "maximum pressure" strategy could backfire; if Iran is pushed into a corner, it may take more aggressive military actions, leading to prolonged strait closures. Additionally, Wall Street banks are drastically cutting back on oil and gas project investments, with Morgan Stanley reducing loans to oil, natural gas, and coal companies by 54% year-over-year. Insufficient long-term capital expenditure will exacerbate future supply shortages.
For investors, the current strategy should be "defensive first, offensive second." Energy stocks, gold, and inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are the top choices; airlines, shipping, and chemical companies should be cautious of rising costs.
The oil market on May 5, 2026, is a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions and supply-demand fundamentals. The smoke from the Strait of Hormuz has yet to clear, yet oil prices have already surged above $110. History shows that every oil crisis marks the collapse of the old order and the beginning of a new one.
Whether the fourth oil crisis is truly imminent may be revealed within the next 30 days. But one thing is certain: energy security has never been more important than today. Whether for nations, businesses, or individuals, everyone must prepare for a prolonged battle in the "high oil price era." After all, in this world full of uncertainties, the only certainty is uncertainty itself.