CITIC Securities: Early signs of a bottoming signal in the sales side of first-tier cities are emerging, with stabilization expected by 2027. Shanghai is expected to be the first city among first-tier cities to stabilize.

CITIC Securities Research Report points out that since 2026, China’s real estate market has continued its structural differentiation trend, with first-tier cities becoming the core focus of this round of market recovery. During the “small spring” period, the performance of real estate markets in various cities across the country has shown significant differentiation, with first-tier cities leading comprehensively in second-hand and new home transactions, inventory clearance, and price recovery, while second- and third-tier cities lag behind relatively. From long-term data observation, first-tier cities show initial signs of a bottoming out on the sales side, continuous inventory clearance, and marginal recovery on the development side, with expectations to stabilize by 2027. Shanghai is expected to be the first among first-tier cities to stabilize. Regarding the bond market, downward space still exists, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range.