#Gate广场五月交易分享 BTC Depth Structure

Price Action Review: BTC broke above $81k during the Asian session on May 5th, reaching the highest price since the end of January, jumping significantly from last Monday’s close of $79,000, with a weekly increase of +5.3%. The breakout occurred during the Asian trading session, driven by the structural "cheap upside call buying" in the options market.
Specific Movement: Opened at $78,543 → Broke above $81,000 during the Asian session → Maintained $80,500-81,000 range during U.S. stock market hours → Closed around $80,900.
Today’s K-line features: A medium-sized bullish candle, with slight resistance above but no signs of volume-driven selling, indicating that selling pressure near $81K is manageable.
Technical Analysis: The 4-hour chart shows BTC’s 50-day moving average trending upward, indicating a clear short-term bullish trend. The daily and 4-hour trend directions are aligned (both moving upward).
Key Support Levels: $78,000-79,000 (last week’s low, an important psychological level); $75,000 (a dense support zone before last week).
Key Resistance Levels: $83,000-85,000 (previous technical consolidation zone); $90,000 (psychological round number); ultimate target $128,198 (all-time high on October 6, 2025).
RSI: The technical indicator shows around 55-60, neutral leaning bullish, not yet in overbought territory (<70), leaving room for further upside.
MACD: A short-term golden cross has formed, with the histogram shifting from negative to positive, confirming momentum shift.
Bollinger Bands: The bandwidth is opening, with price moving between the middle and upper bands, indicating a healthy upward trend.
Technical Pattern: From the low of $65,000 in early April (initial panic low during the war) to the current $81,000, a complete "V-shaped bottom + stepwise ascent" pattern has formed. This is a typical accumulation pattern before the main rally begins after a confirmed bottom.
On-Chain Core Indicators: Key on-chain data: whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) have net increased by 142 addresses over the past 6 months, with a total purchase of about 270k BTC — indicating institutional-level long-term accumulation, not short-term speculation. In April, spot ETF net inflows reached $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly institutional inflow since October 2025. As of now, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has accumulated net inflows of $58.5 billion since its launch in January 2024. BlackRock’s iBIT holds about 812k BTC (around $62 billion), accounting for approximately 62% of the ETF market share.
Exchange BTC Reserves: Currently, total BTC reserves on exchanges are at a near 7-year low — meaning more BTC are flowing out from exchanges into personal wallets or institutional custody, reducing sell pressure structurally, with a continuing trend of supply tightening.
Halving Cycle Positioning: The last BTC halving occurred in April 2024, about 25 months ago. The historical all-time high of $128,198 happened on October 6, 2025, followed by a correction to around $74,000 (about -42%), and is now in a rebound phase after the correction. Based on the three previous halving cycles, a main rally peak typically occurs 12-18 months after halving. The current timing (25 months after halving) theoretically represents a transition period from "post-peak dip → recovery → new high." If historical patterns hold, the next major high for BTC could occur in Q3-Q4 2026.
⚠️ But note: The crypto market in 2026 will be highly institutionalized (ETF, sovereign funds involved), and the applicability of historical halving cycle patterns is diminishing, so they cannot be mechanically applied.