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Global airlines are cutting flights at an unprecedented rate
Over the past two weeks, airlines have cut 2 million seats and 12k flights from their May flight schedules, bringing the total available seats worldwide down to 130 million
The trigger for this contraction is severe: since the outbreak of the Iran war, airline fuel costs have doubled. When fuel prices drop sharply, loss-making routes are the first to die, and airlines can only cancel unprofitable flights, switch to smaller aircraft, and push ticket prices upward
Turkish Airlines and Air China are heavily affected by seat reductions, cutting approximately 520k and 490k seats respectively
Lufthansa leads the flight cancellations, with about 4,000 flights canceled in May alone. Even more harshly, Lufthansa has removed 20k flights from its schedule from May to October
Meanwhile, Gulf airlines are not immune. Emirates, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, and others still operate well below pre-conflict capacity. Gulf airports are closing, tearing apart Eurasian routes, with about one-third of European journeys to Asia impacted
Singapore and Tokyo airports have already asked airlines not to add extra flights to limit fuel consumption. Vietnam has gone further, implementing fuel rationing for airlines
The ripple effects on the global aviation industry have already begun to spill over. This is no longer just about fewer flights; it’s a systemic squeeze involving costs, capacity, routes, and ticket prices spiraling out of control