I muted the group, and the world suddenly became much quieter... Before that, a bunch of people were fixated on these “coincidental transfers,” and it turned into conspiracy talk—I also almost got swept along with the narrative. After I calmed down and went back to review the on-chain activity, I realized that many of these so-called “coincidences” can be broken down: first, during the early days when incentives had just kicked in, hot wallets were distributing in batches; then a series of proxy contracts/routers split the funds into several parts and routed them in segments; finally, it all landed on a few commonly used distribution addresses before moving on to exchanges. It looks like “someone’s using coded signals to coordinate,” but honestly, it’s more like the workflow is too standardized, and everyone is crowding into the same set of tools.

Lately, these new L1/L2 projects have started pulling TVL again. Meanwhile, old users are complaining about mining, buying low/selling high arbitrage, and selling—I can actually understand that... In any case, once incentives roll in, the paths end up looking especially like a template. That’s it for now—less time watching the group, more time watching the paths. Keep your mindset steady.