Recently, in the group, people have been using statements like "Stablecoin supply has increased = it's about to take off" and "ETF is coming in = off-exchange funds are all rushing in" as conclusions... Listening to that, I can't help but feel a bit amused and a little anxious. As for correlation, it's basically like the line at the bubble tea shop downstairs getting longer—it's not necessarily that the bubble tea is better, it could be that the neighboring shop is renovating, or maybe your company just paid out salaries today. The same applies on-chain; with the same supply changes, it could be arbitrage, hedging, market making turnover, or even just a shell swap sitting there.

Looking again at the pledge/sharing security "interest stacking" approach, which is now being criticized as a copycat: when funds get excited, they love to confuse "appearing busy" with "actually new inflows," and the same goes for voting—more lively proposals don't necessarily mean the consensus is more stable. Anyway, right now, I look at the data and ask myself: are the funds actually increasing, or are they just shifting positions, leveraging more to tell stories... That's all for now.