Muyao: Geopolitical safe-haven fleeting, bears remain strong and follow the trend

On the fundamental level, the US and Iran have engaged in maritime confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides conducting military warning actions, but both remain rational and restrained, and there is no sign of further escalation. The geopolitical safe-haven sentiment is only a short-term slight increase, then quickly retreats, unable to provide sustained upward support for gold prices.

On the other hand, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year continue to weaken, with the long-term high-interest-rate pattern persisting, continuously suppressing the bullish trend of gold. After a sharp decline during the previous holiday, gold prices experienced a slight oversold rebound in the early session, but the bearish dominance in the market remains unchanged, and overall remains weak.

From the hourly technical chart, gold prices have been falling from high levels, temporarily stabilizing after dropping to the 4510 level. The rebound strength during the day is very weak, only a weak oscillation correction, unable to reverse the overall downward trend, with key resistance levels above still facing heavy resistance.

In terms of trading, for the rebound near 4650, consider short positions first, with targets sequentially at 4630, 4600, and 4580, and follow the bearish momentum to grasp the decline trend.