Canada posts surprise trade surplus as crude oil and gold become key support drivers

📌 Canada recorded a C$1.78 billion trade surplus in March, sharply reversing from a C$5.11 billion deficit in the previous month and far exceeding market expectations. This was the first surplus in 6 months, showing that the trade balance recovered faster than expected.
💡 The main driver came from exports rising 8.5% to C$72.8 billion, with energy and precious metals playing a major role. Crude oil benefited from higher energy prices amid Middle East tensions, while gold reached a record level thanks to strong export volumes.
🔎 One notable point is that exports to the US still increased, but the US share of Canada’s total exports fell to a record low. This suggests that trade diversification is becoming more visible, especially as non-US exports continued to hit new highs.
⚠️ However, this surplus still depends heavily on oil and gold, two highly volatile commodity groups. If oil prices cool or gold demand weakens, the trade balance may struggle to maintain the same positive momentum next month.
✅ CAD only rose slightly after the data, showing that the market remains cautious about the BoC rate outlook. Still, this report provides short-term support for Canada amid a volatile global trade environment.
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