Lately I've been messing around with address labels and clustering, basically trying to figure out who is pushing a certain amount of money back and forth. But the more I look at it, the more I feel that "profiling" can only be trusted about 70-80%: the same entity using multiple wallets, hot wallets on exchanges mixed with a bunch of people, crossing chains just makes it more like looking through fog. Sometimes I see an address labeled as "smart money" and instinctively look at it more closely, but then I think it's pretty funny—labels might just be good luck hitting the right rhythm.

Recently, everyone has been talking about rate cut expectations and the dollar index, and it seems like risk assets are starting to move together up and down again. On-chain, you can also see funds favoring short-term, choppy trades. My approach is still to be a bit slower: first check if the fund flow has a closed loop and continuity, then decide whether to consider that label. Anyway, I’d rather miss out than be led by a "persona address" trying to set the pace.