Bitunix Analyst: Market Enters 'Data Risk Week', BTC Surges to $80,000 Amid Rising Leverage and Macro Sentiment, Caution Advised Against Long Liquidations

On May 4, the market officially entered a phase of intense macro and geopolitical events. U.S. non-farm payrolls, statements from Federal Reserve officials, tariff risks between the U.S. and Europe, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have all become focal points for global capital. The U.S. military announced the launch of ‘Operation Freedom,’ deploying 15,000 personnel and naval air forces to ensure shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran warned that any intervention could be seen as a violation of the ceasefire, potentially escalating the conflict. Against this backdrop, BTC continued its risk appetite recovery post-ceasefire, rising above the significant $80,000 mark. Observing the liquidation heatmap, the current upper range of $79,500–$81,000 has completed a high-density short liquidity squeeze, while the lower range of $77,000–$78,000 serves as a short-term long defense zone, indicating the market has entered a typical high-leverage hedging state. Notably, this week’s macro data will directly impact the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and overall risk asset sentiment. If non-farm payrolls and inflation expectations remain strong, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates may heat up again, further compressing risk asset valuations; conversely, if data cools, funds may have the opportunity to flow back into tech stocks and the crypto market. Overall, BTC is currently not solely driven by internal sentiment within the crypto market but has entered a phase of joint pricing influenced by ‘macro events + liquidity structure.’ While short-term prices remain strong, the high liquidity at elevated levels also means that volatility may further amplify this week.