Crypto Circle Academician: The daily bullish trend of Bitcoin at 5.6 remains unchanged, overbought on the 4-hour chart requires caution. How to operate above 81530? Latest market analysis and trading suggestions

Bitcoin's current price is 81,500. This rally has been quite fierce, and many are starting to call for a 10,000-point market again. But don’t forget how brutal last year's 120,000 correction was. Never go all-in, avoid over-leveraging. No matter how good the market is, risk control always comes first. Even if your judgment of the trend is accurate, leave room for market errors. Don’t get cocky after profits, don’t panic after losses. The money in crypto can never be exhausted, but your principal can be lost. Take it slow, don’t rush. If the trend is still intact, hold on; if it changes, admit defeat and run. Living is more important than anything.

The daily K-line is at the upper edge of the upward channel. Although the moving averages are still arranged upward, the price has been deviating from the moving averages for several days, with the divergence continuing to widen, indicating a need for technical pullback. The MACD indicator’s red bars are still expanding, but the gap between DIF and DEA has begun to narrow, signaling weakening upward momentum. The Bollinger Bands’ upper band continues to rise, with the current price running close to the upper band, which is a clear resistance. In the overbought state on the daily chart, the risk-reward ratio for chasing longs has significantly decreased, and a pullback risk is accumulating.

On the 4-hour chart, the moving averages remain well arranged upward, with short-term support rising to around 80,500. However, the price is already above the upper Bollinger Band, with obvious overbought signals. Although the MACD red bars have not disappeared, they have shrunk significantly compared to previous highs, indicating weakening upward momentum and initial divergence signals. The current price is fluctuating between 81,500 and 81,700, with strong resistance at the upper band. If it cannot break through effectively, it is likely to retest the middle support of the Bollinger Bands. Short-term trading should be cautious of the risk of a quick pullback after a rally.

Short-term trading ideas: Follow the larger cycle trend, set small stop-losses, and enter and exit quickly.

Support below at 81,000 to 80,500, stop-loss at 80,000, target at 82,000 to 82,500, break below to 83,500.

Resistance above at 82,000 to 82,500, stop-loss at 83,000, target at 81,500 to 81,000, break below to 80,500.

I’ve seen too many people chase highs at the end of a trend and cut losses early in a correction, ending up getting hit from both sides. The current market is not the time for blindly going long. Every trade must be carefully calculated for risk-reward, with proper stop-losses. Don’t hold onto false hopes.