Bitunix Analyst: Global Central Banks and Geopolitical Risks Pressure Markets, Repricing 'Extended High Rates' and Energy Supply Uncertainty

On May 5, the market is simultaneously digesting two core themes: first, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is adopting a more hawkish stance against inflation, and second, the escalating situation in the Middle East poses potential impacts on energy and global supply chains. The RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with institutions including Goldman Sachs, Westpac, and Citigroup believing there is still room for further rate hikes, reflecting that pressures from energy prices and the labor market have not effectively cooled down. On the other hand, Federal Reserve ‘third-in-command’ John Williams has issued a more representative policy signal. He clearly stated that there is currently no sufficient reason to raise rates again, but this year’s inflation being higher than expected means that the timing for rate cuts will be delayed. This indicates that the core logic of the Fed has not changed; rather, the high interest rate environment may persist longer. Especially with the heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices remaining high, the market is beginning to reassess how energy-input inflation disrupts the policy paths of global central banks. Meanwhile, the Japanese market has also experienced significant volatility, with ongoing attention on whether Japanese officials will further intervene in the yen. In terms of dollar liquidity, the U.S. Treasury has raised its borrowing estimate for the second quarter to $189 billion, indicating that the supply pressure of U.S. Treasuries will continue to absorb market funds. Geopolitically, the U.S.-Iran conflict remains the largest external variable for the global market. The escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks in the UAE, confrontations between Iranian and U.S. naval vessels, and Trump’s tough warnings to Iran have all contributed to the continued escalation of risks in the energy supply chain. What the market is genuinely concerned about now is not just short-term fluctuations in oil prices, but whether global shipping, insurance costs, and supply chain stability will be impacted again. For the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has recently mirrored global risk appetite and dollar liquidity, and under increasing macro uncertainty, the willingness of funds to engage with high-volatility assets will continue to face pressure.