Just now I got itchy again and wanted to chase a position, my mouse almost clicked down, then I suddenly stopped and asked myself: am I seeing new information, or am I being pushed by emotions to add to my position? Honestly, a lot of the time it’s just FOMO, seeing someone’s screenshot or a K-line spike and imagining “If I don’t get in now, it’ll be gone”… Anyway, I often do this.

Recently, there’s been a lot of people watching large on-chain transfers and exchange hot and cold wallets moving, then shouting “Smart money is here/has left,” right? I used to be pretty stubborn: I only look at the chain, whatever the chain says I believe. The lesson I learned and wrote down is: the chain can also lie, or you simply don’t know whose money it is or what they’re planning to do, so all interpretation relies on imagination.

Now I’ve adjusted: on-chain info is a reference, but if I can’t clearly explain “how this information affects the price/time window/how I can execute,” then it’s probably just emotions pushing me. First, calculate the costs (gas + slippage + worst case), then decide whether to go for it. If I can’t, then forget it. That’s it for now.