Wintermute highlights two key scenarios — the classic and institutional cycles. According to the first, Bitcoin moves along a typical pattern after reaching a historical high. Such consolidation periods can last 300-400 days. It has now been a little over 200 days.

The institutional cycle assumes that the market structure has changed. Main demand is driven by institutional investors through ETFs and corporate reserves. The role of retail participants has decreased.
At the same time, analysts note that the intensity of institutional demand decreases as the price rises.
According to Wintermute, the market is between these two scenarios. There is demand, but the question is whether it is sufficient to sustain growth. An additional factor remains macroeconomics.
The report notes that further dynamics depend on the geopolitical situation and the state of the energy market.
"Thus, the key question is whether Trump can navigate geopolitical risks without a blow to the energy market and the real economy. If yes — the scenario looks positive. If not — the market will remain volatile without a clear trend," Wintermute summarized.
Recall that in early 2026, Wintermute stated that the four-year crypto market cycle no longer works.