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The capital seesaw effect reappears—Bitcoin sucking blood from gold?
Recently, the most "money-grabbing" asset in the financial markets besides U.S. stocks is Bitcoin, which today surged strongly past $80,500, gaining momentous momentum. In stark contrast, gold fell below $4,600 and has been unable to recover. Ironically, a similar situation occurred earlier this year, when gold once surged past $5,500, while Bitcoin was largely ignored, dropping below $60,000 at its lowest. Just a few months later, the situation flipped completely—does this switch in roles indicate the reemergence of the capital seesaw effect, with Bitcoin biting back and draining the gold market?
1. Core Phenomenon: Structural Differentiation in Capital Rotation
‌Real-time Price Divergence‌
‌Bitcoin‌: Broke $80k (RMB 552k) on May 5, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.13%, rebounding 45% from April lows;
‌Gold‌: Spot price hovers around $4,587 per ounce, down 18% from the early-year high, ETF holdings drop to the lowest since 2024.
‌Historical Ratio Changes‌
Bitcoin/Gold ratio fell from the 2025 peak of 40 ounces per coin (1 BTC equals 40 ounces of gold) to the current 17.4 ounces per coin, but still above the 10-year average (8-12 ounces), reflecting that Bitcoin’s relative valuation advantage still exists.
2. The Fundamental Drivers of Capital Flows
(1) Sensitivity to Liquidity‌
‌Bitcoin‌: Highly sensitive to global financial liquidity
After the Fed paused rate hikes, leverage in the crypto market quickly rebounded (perpetual contract funding rates turned positive)
Spot ETF weekly net inflow of $2.4 billion, accounting for 15% of daily trading volume
‌Gold‌: Suppressed by real interest rates and the dollar
U.S. 10-year TIPS yield rose to 1.8%, a new high since 2025
Dollar index stabilized above 108, increasing gold holding costs
(2) Reconfiguration of Risk Attributes‌
Bitcoin attracts young capital due to its narrative as a digital safe haven, while gold is sold off by institutions for dollars during liquidity crises.
(3) On-chain Data Reveals Capital Migration‌
‌Bitcoin on-chain activity cools but whale accumulation increases‌:
Active addresses drop to 890k/day (a 2-year low), but addresses holding >1,000 BTC rise to 41.5%
‌Gold ETF continues to bleed‌:
Global gold ETF outflows for 11 consecutive weeks, with total holdings down by 197 tons (about $12 billion)
3. Medium- to Long-term Positioning: Complementary rather than Replacing
‌Bitcoin: A Volatility Asset for the Digital Age‌
Advantages‌:
Scarcity driven by halving cycles (block rewards to drop to 0.78 BTC in 2028)
Accelerated institutionalization (U.S. government holds 330k coins, accounting for 1.6% of circulating supply)
‌Bottlenecks‌:
Volatility exceeds 80% (gold only 15%), not yet incorporated into mainstream reserve assets
‌
Gold: The Ultimate Anchor of the Credit System‌
Unreplaceability‌:
Global central banks increased gold holdings by 228 tons in Q1 2026, with China’s reserves rising to 4.9%
Millennium monetary consensus supports resilience against extreme risks (such as sovereign debt crises)
‌Practical Constraints‌:
Low efficiency of physical delivery, difficult to meet the transaction needs of the digital era