#Gate广场五月交易分享 The fundamentals saw a sudden change yesterday as the Middle East situation took a turn, with the previously bullish scenario becoming tense again. The U.S. claimed to have launched actions to divert the Strait of Hormuz, sinking an Iranian interference ship; Iran responded by firing warning shots and damaging U.S. operations in the strait. The oil-producing country UAE was attacked for the first time since the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. The Middle East situation has returned to tension, with crude oil surging sharply, U.S. stocks fluctuating, and gold dropping again, narrowly holding above $4,500 per ounce. Specifically, the UAE Ministry of Defense reported detecting four cruise missiles coming from Iran, three of which were successfully intercepted over territorial waters, and one fell into the sea; the UAE confirmed a fire at the Fujeirah oil industrial zone caused by a drone attack from Iran. We are closely monitoring the escalation of the conflict; if it continues to escalate, gold prices may fall below $4,500.

Since Powell took office, whether he will stay at the Federal Reserve has attracted market attention. Former New York Fed President Dudley said Powell’s decision to remain on the Fed’s board after stepping down as Chair would help reassure Wall Street and the public amid pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates. “The Fed has been under relentless attack from the president, and its independence has been questioned,” Dudley said. “Powell believes that continuing to serve on the Fed will actually strengthen external perceptions of the Fed’s independence. I think, if he’s willing, staying on is a wise move.” Powell’s term as Fed director ends in 2028, and he chose to remain on the board after resigning as Chair on May 15. Meanwhile, the new Fed Chair Powell is about to take office, and market reactions post-inauguration are closely watched.
The world’s largest gold ETF holdings stand at 1,035.768 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; meanwhile, the world’s largest silver ETF holdings are 15,035.63 tons, a reduction of 6.45 tons from the previous day. Gold holdings remain unchanged, while silver has decreased, indicating a higher probability of bearish signals.
From a technical perspective on the 1-hour gold chart, gold again experienced a sharp decline yesterday, with prices falling from a high of $4,630 through key supports at $4,560 and $4,510, with the lowest touching around $4,501. The MACD indicator shows an accelerated death cross, and the green bars continue to expand, significantly strengthening the bearish momentum.
Moving averages show that gold has already broken below the three most critical moving averages in the chart, including the Vegas channel and MA60, indicating a bearish trend with a high likelihood of further decline. From a pattern perspective, breaking below the lower support of the rising flag pattern signals a shift to bearish. If the $4,500 level is lost again, further downside may occur. Looking at the moving average arrangement, the MA21 and MA60, which were flat, have quickly turned downward, combined with MACD momentum divergence signals, suggesting new lows are expected.
Summary: Today, the strategy remains to look for rebounds to short, expecting continued downward momentum. The primary focus is on the 45-55 range, where we already entered a position. If there’s a rebound, keep an eye on 45-55; if it breaks upward, then watch 80-4600. If the price rises above 4610 today, the bearish view is invalidated, and the target could shift toward 4700 or 4750.
Support levels are at 4470 and 4420; going lower could be too deep, around 4350-4330.
The current plan is to short on rebounds, and if the downward move continues, consider whether to go long based on volume and divergence signals. Once momentum shows signs of exhaustion, it’s time to consider buying again, possibly around 4420-4400.
This is the general outlook: support and resistance levels are for reference. The goal this week is to help everyone profit! If you have questions, contact me. Wishing everyone success and smooth sailing!