#gate廣場五月交易分享 Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Surges to Three-Month High Driven by Derivatives

Bitcoin prices surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since late January. U.S.-listed spot ETFs saw $153.87 million in inflows last week, marking five consecutive weeks of positive inflows. Traders should remain cautious, as the price increase is mainly driven by demand for perpetual contracts, while the spot market remains in contraction. The report indicates that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern seen in early 2022 during the bear market.
Bitcoin (BTC) prices surged above $80,000 on Monday, reaching the highest level since late January. Institutional demand supported this rally, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording over $153.87 million in inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of net inflows. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is approaching a key psychological level.
Analysts point out that the current market structure is more speculative than fundamental, similar to the pattern at the start of the 2022 bear market. Institutional demand remains strong, supporting continued price increases, with Bitcoin reaching a high of $80,635 on Monday after a mild consolidation last week.
Institutional demand supported the price rise and remains robust. SoSoValue data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $153.87 million in inflows last week, continuing a streak of inflows since early April. If this trend persists this week, Bitcoin could see further price gains.
Derivatives-Driven Rally
CryptoQuant’s weekly report last week stated that Bitcoin’s April price increase was entirely driven by the growth in demand for perpetual contracts. Recent price rises are more of a speculative rebound rather than fundamental-driven, as spot demand remains in contraction. CryptoQuant analyst noted: “The demand for perpetual contracts was the sole driver of Bitcoin’s price increase in April, while spot demand has continued to shrink. This configuration has historically been associated with unsustainable price rallies during bear markets.” “This divergence—rising perpetual contract demand while spot demand contracts—indicates that the price increase is leveraged-driven rather than driven by new coin accumulation.
Historically, this setup lacks the structural foundation needed to sustain a price rally and is usually resolved through adjustments after perpetual contract positions are unwound.” The current market structure resembles that of early 2022, when demand for perpetual contracts surged alone while spot demand contracted, a pattern that foreshadowed several months of subsequent price declines.
Analysts summarized: “While this similarity does not guarantee identical outcomes, it suggests that the current demand structure aligns with bearish precedents in history. Using on-chain demand decomposition applied across cycles, this pattern is seen as a reliable early indicator of price vulnerability.”
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Approaching Key Psychological Level
As of Monday’s writing, Bitcoin traded above $79,700, maintaining a short-term bullish bias, with prices consolidating above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which are clustered around the mid-$70k range. Bitcoin’s price is also above the 50% retracement level (drawn from January high to February low), approximately $78,962, and near the top of a horizontal parallel channel at $75,680, indicating that the broader upward trend remains supported. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains solid at around 65, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has rebounded, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum. Resistance levels are first at the psychological level of $80,000, followed by around $82,193 near the 200-day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $83,437, with higher resistance at about $84,410. Initial support is seen at the 50% retracement of $78,962, with additional buying interest near the channel’s upper boundary at $75,680, and the 100-day EMA slightly below $75,900 providing support. Deeper corrections could test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day EMA, located between $74,432 and $74,487, followed by the broader channel bottom and the key support zone around $63,000.