CITIC Futures: Limited bearish factors for natural rubber, the market remains relatively strong

Lime prices did not follow through with the pullback trend at the end of last week yesterday; instead, they continued to stay relatively strong. In recent days, there has been a fairly intense atmosphere of weather speculation. Even with the market broadly expecting a strong El Niño, funds have entered early to position. At present, there are no obvious negative catalysts on the surface, and spot performance is relatively strong, so there is limited room for downside. The current weather speculation is within expectations, but since overseas regions have not fully entered the tapping season, it remains difficult to determine whether weather will affect later supply. Judging from the short-term elevated raw material prices and the domestic inventory drawdown performance, the market still faces some pressure ahead of breaking through previous highs. Aside from weather speculation, there are limited variables on the supply side. In the short term, attention can be more focused on the demand-side expectation gap. Previously, due to Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the market generally held a pessimistic view of near-term downstream demand. However, based on the latest tire operating rates, there has not been the expected decline, and export data has also remained steady. This expectation gap may also be one of the reasons the current market sentiment is relatively warm. Looking ahead, for now we will continue to maintain a wide-ranging, sideways oscillation in the market. You can temporarily observe resistance near the prior high area, while patiently waiting for pullbacks to buy on dips. (CITIC Futures)