In 2025, the tariff war sparked what could be the biggest financial “black swan” in over a decade. Everyone looks at it as bearish—every rise is only a rebound—then a four-year-largest “white swan” appears.

One year later, with two wars stacking on top of each other, the market drops again. People still look bearish, and still believe that every rise is just a rebound.
But the opposite of retail investors’ extreme pessimism is that institutions keep buying continuously.
In fact, the financial environment hasn’t changed; it’s still in a relatively loose state. If it’s a deep bear during a rate-cut cycle, then what about a rate-hike cycle?
69x short, 71x short, 73x short, 75x short, 78x short, 79x short, 80x short—shorting all the way, coming up with more than ten thousand points of upside. Can you understand it this way: later, once it starts to pull back, if it goes down, then you add longs—buy along the way, keep adding longs all the way?
The bottom is being raised slowly and continuously. Before there’s a volume surge, the risk of trying to touch the top is still very high. It’s not that you can’t short—it’s only that you can short for the short term. If it can’t go down, you have to get out, you have to push the stop-loss level. It’s exhausting. Shorting the big cake is really no better than shorting the distributed altcoins that are being distributed.
The big cake will come back. No matter what, I think it’s reasonable to see it return to 78x, 77x, 75x, 73x, and even break 7—but how long you have to wait is unknown. Nobody knows what kind of negative news will trigger this kind of deep pullback, and nobody knows.
Is betting on negative news that no one knows when it will happen consistent with the logic of trading? Like yesterday—two missile strikes. The first thing you do is adjust the short positions that don’t fit, instead of assuming they’ll just keep going like that without turning back. Now it’s May. The closer it gets to the mid-term elections, the faster the dispute across the strait will “come to a close” or maintain a “delicate balance.”
The same thing: no matter how back-and-forth it is, the market will eventually get desensitized. From the missile hitting a warship, the market drops by 2000 points already and you can see some signs. If yesterday’s war had escalated, how much could it drop—5000 points? 7000 points? Then after a slight easing, it would continue to rebound upward. How do you short for a long run?
If you really don’t know how to open a position, take the high and low points from the last 90 days to calculate the midpoint. If it’s below the midpoint, slowly do longs in batches. If it exceeds the midpoint, reduce positions in batches. When the distance from the 90-day high drops below 10%, slowly short in batches—that’s the simplest method.
The market has never been driven by retail investors’ will, and it never will be. If everyone in the whole plaza is bearish, it falls; if everyone is bullish, it rises. Then who would still lose money?
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