CITIC Construction Investment Futures: The urea market is in a tug-of-war pattern of "spot tight, ample supply, policy suppression, and expectation disturbance."

International urea prices have risen sharply due to disturbances in the Middle East, with the domestic and international price gap significantly widening, making export profits highly attractive. Therefore, even if the export window is not open, the market expectations themselves have become a price support. However, from the perspective of supply security, price stability, and food security, the probability of policy loosening in the short term remains low, and more exports will influence market sentiment rather than actual flow. Overall, the urea market is in a tug-of-war pattern of “spot tightness, ample supply, policy suppression, and expectation disturbances.” Short-term prices are expected to remain firm with oscillations, and a significant loosening around May Day is unlikely. (CITIC Construction Investment Futures)