FedWatch 38.6%: The rate hike expectations are back, but BTC at 80k is quite dull. This rate hike sword has already pierced into the pricing of the crypto market.

CME FedWatch raised the probability of "at least one rate hike this year" to 38.6% on May 4th, whereas a few days ago it was in the single digits.
The interest rate market is changing its tune: inflation tail hasn't been fully cut, oil prices and geopolitics are pushing expectations upward, and the consensus that "cutting rates = risk assets rally" is temporarily paused.
The pricing for near-term meetings remains firm: in the Fed Rate Monitor, the probability of maintaining the 3.50-3.75% range on 6/17 is still over 90%, and 7/29 also leans toward holding steady.
The market says "possibly tighter," but hesitates on the timetable. This inconsistency is most likely to cause volatility in high-beta assets—both crypto and the NASDAQ are on the list.
Looking at BTC: hovering near the 80k round number, the market seems a bit dull, as if pretending to be dead.
The contradiction is actually clearer—on 5/1, the daily net inflow into spot BTC ETFs was about $630 million, slow money has padded the floor, but the accelerator hasn't been engaged.
Slow money can support the floor without creating FOMO; fast money, seeing rate jumps, will first pull back leverage, waiting for volatility to shake out the weak hands.
At this point, 80k is less a launch signal and more like a banknote verifier: who is buying, hedging, or exiting, will be revealed through basis, funding rates, and short-term liquidation distributions.
In Polymarket, "2026 no cuts" is also approaching 60%, with the tail becoming more expensive, and leverage will only become more selective.
The conclusion is straightforward: before interest rates regain pricing power, 80k only filters people, not launches; the real signals come from whether oil prices and front-end rates can step back, and whether ETF inflows can shift from a spike to continuity.
The market won't lie.