In 2025, the tariff war triggered the biggest financial industry black swan in over a decade. Everyone sees a bear market; all rises are just rebounds, then a four-year-largest white swan appears.

One year later, two wars stacking together, the market drops again. People still see a bear, still think all rises are rebounds.
But the opposite of retail investors' extreme pessimism is institutional continuous buying.
Actually, the financial environment hasn't changed; it remains relatively loose. If the rate-cut cycle is a deep bear, what about the rate-hike cycle?
69x short, 71x short, 73x short, 75x short, 78x short, 79x short, 80x short, all the way shorted over ten thousand points of gains.
So can we understand that when it starts to pull back later, do we just buy more on dips, continuously adding?
The bottom is slowly and steadily rising. Before volume increases, testing the top is still very risky.
It's not that shorting is impossible; it can only be short-term. If it can't go down, then it must go up, and stop-loss levels need to be pushed.
Trading becomes very exhausting. Shorting big coins is really less effective than finding altcoins to dump.
Big coins will come back; no matter what, I think it's reasonable to see them return to 78x, 77x, 75x, 73x, or even break below 7.
But no one knows how long it will take. No one knows what kind of negative news will trigger this deep correction.
Betting on negative news that no one knows when will happen—does that align with trading logic?
Like yesterday, two missile strikes. The first thing to do was to adjust the unsuitable short positions, not to assume it would continue like that without turning back.
Now it's May. The closer we get to the mid-term elections, the faster the Strait disputes will "come to an end" or maintain a "delicate balance."
The same thing, repeated over and over, the market will eventually become desensitized.
From missile hits on warships, a 2,000-point drop already shows some signs.
If yesterday's war escalated, how much could it drop? 5,000 points? 7,000 points?
Then, after some easing, it would rebound again. How to short for the long term?
If I really don't know how to open positions, I just take the high and low of 90 days to calculate the midpoint.
Below the midpoint, I slowly and gradually buy more; above the midpoint, I gradually reduce positions.
When the distance from the 90-day high drops below 10%, I slowly and gradually short.
This is the simplest method.
The market has never been dominated by retail investors' will, it never will be.
If the whole Twitter is bearish, the market falls; if bullish, it rises. Who still loses money then?