If I can only keep one habit: first look at on-chain transactions and order book depth, then look at the narrative.

Recently, while browsing NFTs, a soft floor price can reveal that liquidity is actually thin; a few quick sales can push it up, a few people canceling orders can cause it to collapse;
Royalty issues are also quite realistic—if the fees are high, everyone moves to zero royalty platforms; if they are low, there’s no money to sustain the community…
To put it simply, stories are told when things are hot, and when cold, only the order book remains.
And then there’s the matter of the main public chain needing upgrades/maintenance—everyone in the group is guessing whether it will migrate; I, for one, care more about which L2 it will move to—just don’t let the fees become ridiculous again.
That’s all for now.